The UK Became Net Importer of Oil During 2006: IEA and EIA Hint Permanently

The most recent data released by the UK Dept of Trade and Industry shows that the UK was a net oil importer for 2006. With both the world's foremost energy agencies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), forecasting that the UK will return to its long-term trend of severe oil depletion in 2008, the days of the UK being a net oil exporter for longer than a few months are over. It is time for the UK government to let go of the idea that the UK will be a net oil exporter until 2010, and accept we are now dependent on imports.

Data released by the UK Dept of Trade and Industry 22 February¹ shows that the UK was a net oil importer for most of 2006:

• Every month except June
• Every quarter
• For the year as a whole

In its February Oil Market Report², the International Energy Agency forecasts:

"Offshore crude supply is seen levelling off temporarily in 2007 at 1.43 mb/d, after declining consistently so far this decade."

In other words, UK oil production will be roughly the same as last year, then will continue to decline.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is even clearer about the decline in UK oil production. The following graph from its Short-Term Energy Outlook³, updated on the 6^th March 2007, shows that the EIA expects UK oil production to decline slightly in 2007, and considerably in 2008:

 In summary, the UK was a net oil importer for all bar one month in 2006, it will be a net exporter for at least a few months during 2007, then return to a long-term period of falling oil production and the status of net oil importer from 2008 onwards. The idea of the UK being a net oil exporter to 2010 is not realistic.

Ends

Notes for editors:

1.                  http://www.dtistats.net/energystats/et3_10.xls

2.                  http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/13feb07full.pdf, p21.

3.                                     http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html, Figure 6f.

4.                                     The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) is a UK-registered educational charity
working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding
of the world's oil and gas depletion problems. Further information is available on its website.