ODAC News
Wednesday 26 Sept
The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
Global Oil Production Summary Report
1/ Oilwatch Monthly - September 2007 (The Oil Drum:
Europe [ASPO
Big Oil – BP’s Performance
2/ BP faces shake-up as
boss warns of ‘dreadful’ results (The Times, Tue 25 Sep)
Economy -
3a/ '10% chance' of house price crash [in the UK]
(BBC News, Tue 18 Sep)
3b/ IMF
fears over Britain's sub-prime market
(The Telegraph, Wed 26 Sep)
Nuclear Energy – New Build
4/ Yemen nuclear deal
sparks security fears [five new nuclear reactors]
(Arabian Business, Tue 25 Sep)
Oil Production - UAE
5/ UAE forced to slash oil
output by a quarter (Arabian Business, Sun 23
Sep)
6/ Samsung lines up next
tower megaproject
(Arabian Business, Sat 15 Sep)
Natural Gas – Nabucco/
7a/ Turkey defends energy ties with Iran despite U.S. opposition
(
7b/ U.S.
officials woo Turkmenistan's president (International
Herald Tribune, Tue 25 Sep)
7c/ EU
initiates Nabucco gas pipeline planning (Oil and Gas
Journal, Thu 20 Sep)
Energy Intelligence – various
8a/ Oil Price Forecasts from Goldman Sachs
(Energy Intelligence, Tue 18 Sep)
8b/ Demand
Runs Ahead Of Supply As Oil Inventories Fall
(Energy Intelligence [Energy Intelligence Briefing], Tue 18 Sep)
8c/ New
Taxes May Hit Tar Sands Production (Energy
Intelligence, Thu 20 Sep)
8d/ Venezuela
Outlines Plans to Build Petrochemical Industry
(Energy Intelligence [Oil Daily], Tue 25 Sep)
**********************************************************************************************************
1/ Oilwatch Monthly - September 2007
(The Oil Drum: Europe [ASPO
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2973#more
Comment: September’s issue of Oilwatch
Monthly. The main file is a PDF, 1.5 Mb available from the above link.
Article: 1) OPEC Demand - In 2002
OPEC-11 (excluding
2) Crude oil - As of the time of writing the latest
numbers from the EIA's International Petroleum
Monthly were not yet available.
3) Total Liquids - In August world production of total
liquids decreased by 430,000 barrels per day from July according to the latest
figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world
liquids production of 84.60 million b/d, which is 854,000 b/d lower year on
year from August 2006 to August 2007 and 1.53 million b/d lower than all time
maximum liquids production of 86.13 million b/d reached in July 2006. The
average production in 2007 up to August has been 85.05 million b/d, comparable
to the average 2006 production of 85.00 million b/d.
4) OPEC - Total crude oil production of the OPEC
cartel decreased by 80,000 b/d to a level of 30.16 million b/d, from July to
August, according to the latest estimates of the IEA. Natural Gas Liquids
production increased with 20.000 b/d to 4.82 million b/d, from June to July,
according to the IEA. The average total liquids production in 2007 up to August
has been 35.12 million b/d, which is 593,000 b/d lower than average 2006
production of 35.71 million b/d.
**********************************************************************************************************
2/ BP faces shake-up as boss warns of ‘dreadful’ results
(The Times, Tue 25 Sep)
Comment: An alternative viewpoint of
BP’s current production/revenue problems is that depletion / the end of easy
oil / Peak Oil is beginning to bite. It is not just BP that is having problems.
Platforms and refineries are aging the world over, and all the major
independent oil and gas companies have problems accessing new provinces/fields.
Article: BP’s new chief executive,
Tony Hayward, has signalled to staff that he is preparing for a major internal
shake-up of the business, to be announced next month, and gave warning that the
oil giant’s third quarter results would be “dreadful”.
Mr Hayward, who made the remarks in a “town hall”
meeting with middle management in
He said BP planned to simplify the business by cutting
the number of layers of management between workers and the chief executive from
11 to seven. “There is massive duplication and lack of clarity of who does
what,” Mr Hayward was quoted as saying. “We will reduce the number of
organisation units.”
He added that BP needed to change its internal culture
and become less risk-averse. “Assurance is killing us,” he said.
The memo added that, while the group’s third-quarter
revenues would be hard-hit, in the fourth quarter they would pick up because of
the addition of 250,000 barrels per day of production from the start of Atlantis,
as well as other projects in Angola, Trinidad and the Gulf of Mexico.
BP declined to comment on the memo. However, it is
clear that
At the group’s interim results, the first since he was
appointed chief executive, Mr Hayward blamed weak engineering skills for delays
at the Thunder Horse and Atlantis oil production platforms in the
Mr Hayward, who recently took over from Lord Browne of
Madingley, has been scrambling to restore confidence in the group’s operational
record following the deaths of 15 workers at its
The company has also faced problems in
**********************************************************************************************************
3a/ '10% chance' of house price crash [in the
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7000598.stm
Article: There is a one in 10 chance
of a 1990s-style housing market crash in the
Rics has lowered
its expectations for house prices over the next 12 to 15 months to no change
from 3% growth.
Its chief economist Simon Rubinsohn
said that talk of a looming crash was legitimate and not irresponsible.
In the last housing market crash, average prices fell
by 35%, adjusted for inflation, from their peak in 1989.
Mr Rubinsohn also said that
there was a 20% chance of a 10% fall in
However, Peter Damesick,
head of
... On Monday, the former head of the
3b/ IMF fears over
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/25/cnimf125.xml&DCMP=EMC-mcn_25092007
Article: The International Monetary
Fund has warned that
The Washington-based institution singled out the
It came alongside a warning that the credit crunch and
its aftermath will last longer, and be more painful, than many people expect.
... "The rapid deterioration in the
It added that
Although measured, the comparison will cause major
jitters in the
Significantly, the report previously provided an early
warning about the possibility of knock-on effects of a
Yesterday's publication said that the credit crunch
would be followed by a protracted slowdown, which would force credit markets to
change forever.
The downbeat assessment spoke of further shocks to the
system in the months ahead...
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4/
Comment: Many countries, including
several in the
Article:
Under the agreement, Powered Corporation is set to
build five nuclear reactors in the country that will generate 5,000 megawatts
of energy, newswire AFP reported on Tuesday, quoting
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5/ UAE forced to slash oil output by a quarter
(Arabian Business, Sun 23 Sep)
Article: Scheduled maintenance at
three of the UAE's largest oilfields will cut oil
output by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, the Abu Dhabi National Oil
Company (Adnoc) said in a statement on Sunday.
Adnoc's
statement confirmed work widely expected by the industry and reported by
Reuters in August. At its peak, the maintenance would cut 810,000 bpd of output
from the world's sixth-largest oil exporter, oil traders said last month.
The output reduction as detailed by Adnoc was about a quarter of the UAE's
output. The Opec member produced about 2.56 million
bpd in August, according to a Reuters survey.
Adnoc will also
do work at the 415,000 bpd Ruwais refinery from
December 22 to February 25, cutting crude processing by a total of 5 million
barrels during the maintenance period, Adnoc said.
... ADNOC gave no details on the length of the
oilfield maintenance. Industry sources said last month the work would last for
two to three weeks and start in late October.
The state oil firm also gave no details on the units
to undergo work at Ruwais, the UAE's
largest refinery. An industry source in August said Adnoc's
refining arm Takreer would undertake work on a crude
distillation unit and a diesel-making hydrocracking
unit, shutting in around 150,000 bpd.
**********************************************************************************************************
6/ Samsung lines up next tower megaproject
(Arabian Business, Sat 15 Sep)
Comment: Insanity in
Article: Samsung Engineering &
Construction is looking to build a new tower in the region whose height will
top the Burj Dubai.
The South Korean construction giant is currently
working in collaboration with
It is now in talks with a number of developers across
the
"We have been approached by a number of
clients," said Beejay Kim, senior manager,
Samsung Engineering & Construction. "Many have tall building plans,
not only Nakheel.
Samsung is no stranger to the construction of tall
towers, having been involved in the construction of three of the world's
tallest skyscrapers - Tapei 101,
**********************************************************************************************************
7a/
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=153655
Article:
The
After a meeting with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Burns answered questions of reporters where he called for UN Security Council
members and
Burns said
Furthermore, Burns pointed out that an energy deal
signed between
""We don't think that it makes sense to
announce long-term oil and gas deals with
However, responding Burns, Erdogan
said, ""
Before leaving for the
Following Erdogan’s remarks,
Energy Minister Hilmi Guler
said he would meet his Iranian counterpart next month to sign a major energy
deal.
Answer to
Jeffery attended a conference of around 20 states to
discuss how West Asian, Caspian and Central Asian countries could diversify
their energy export routes.
From the first day the
Some media circles even claim that the growth in bilateral
trade between
7b/
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/09/25/business/turkmen.php
Comment: As usual, Jonathan Stern of
the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, hits the nail on the head: “People are
getting too far ahead of themselves. We need to see what
Article: American officials, striving
to weaken the grip of
The president, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, in the first trip by a Turkmen leader to
the
...
... The [
From there it could enter Europe's proposed Nabucco
pipeline to Eastern Europe or another gas pipeline through
The size of
Some analysts are cautious. They say that at three
trillion cubic meters,
"People are getting too far ahead of
themselves," said Jonathan Stern, an analyst at the Oxford Institute for
Energy Studies in
7c/ EU initiates Nabucco gas pipeline planning
(Oil and Gas Journal, Thu 20 Sep)
Comment: Login required after one
week. Interesting, if not bizarre, list of sources for Nabucco gas -
Article: To forward energy supply
security in the European Union, a high-level conference was held in
At the meeting, attended by ministers from Hungary,
Austria, Bulgaria, Italy, and Turkey; and representatives of industry,
international financial institutions, and the specialized press, EU Energy
Commissioner Andris Pielbalgs
asked newly appointed Nabucco project coordinator Jozias
Van Aarsten "to take an active role in
developing the route" of the pipeline.
Van Aarsten was asked to
look at coordination in the countries that will host the pipeline and evaluate
additional and urgent political and regulatory actions needed "to
elaborate a plan to tackle them."
Led by
Gazprom is planning a rival gas pipeline, South
Stream, which would extend from southern
However, 50% of Nabucco's
proposed 30 billion cu m/year capacity is available to any gas source along its
route from
Daugier
pointed out that, although the
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8/
Energy Intelligence – various
No links – all from newsletter.
8a/ Oil Price Forecasts from Goldman Sachs
(Energy Intelligence, Tue 18 Sep)
Comment: From the commentary section,
‘World Watch -- Comment & Interpretation on Today's News’, of the daily
newsletter.
Article: Oil prices continue to charge
ahead, despite Opec's best efforts to check the rise.
With
8b/ Demand Runs Ahead Of Supply As Oil Inventories Fall
(Energy Intelligence [Energy Intelligence Briefing], Tue 18 Sep)
Article: Instead of generating a
surplus of supply and allowing for a normal stockbuild
ahead of the winter, global oil demand again ran ahead of supply in August,
counter to the usual seasonal trend. The third quarter balance is showing signs
of repeating a shallow draw in stocks, as happened in the second quarter, and
with the Northern Hemisphere winter coming up fast, markets appears relatively
tight.
8c/ New Taxes May Hit Tar Sands Production
(Energy Intelligence, Thu 20 Sep)
Comment: From the commentary section,
‘World Watch -- Comment & Interpretation on Today's News’, of the daily
newsletter.
Article: As if cost escalation wasn't
burden enough, prospective Canadian oil sands producers are now confronting a
revenue grab by the
8d/
Comment: For ‘
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
|
4.12 |
4.15 |
4.15 |
4.15 |
4.18 |
4.18 |
4.22 |
4.29 |
4.32 |
4.32 |
|
23.00 |
24.10 |
22.37 |
26.60 |
26.60 |
26.69 |
27.57 |
26.74 |
27.58 |
28.13 |
For comparison:
|
0.77 |
0.76 |
0.76 |
0.74 |
0.66 |
0.63 |
0.59 |
0.53 |
0.48 |
0.48 |
|
3.65 |
3.79 |
3.81 |
3.84 |
3.83 |
3.67 |
3.19 |
3.16 |
3.01 |
2.89 |
Coincidentally, an article from Friday’s FC Novosti
newsletter states, of Venezuela: “Venezuela ranks first in South America with
its proven natural gas reserves of 4,300 bcm…The country annually produces 70
bcm of natural gas, all of which is consumed domestically, and neither exports,
nor imports it.”
Article:
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