ODAC News

 

Sunday 27 May

 

The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre

 

 

1/   A Gas Crisis 30 Years in the Making (The Washington Post, Sun 27 May)

2/   UK paves way for new nuclear plants (Financial Times, WED 23 May)

3/   BP scraps green energy plan            (The Herald, Thu 24 may)

4/   Austrian deal will extend Gazprom grip on European energy market      (The Times, Fri 25 May)

5/   UAE airport spend to hit $19bn          (Arabian Business, Wed 23 May)

6/   Petrol to hit £1 a litre within weeks as oil supply strains show  (The Guardian, Fri 25 May)

7/   Battle for the Barrels [new book - feedback]           (Duncan Clarke, Feb 2007)

 

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1/         A Gas Crisis 30 Years in the Making     (The Washington Post, Sun 27 May)

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/24/AR2007052401121.html

 

Comment:    This is one of the best summaries of the problem I have seen in a while – one that might appeal to the unconverted. Short, non-alarmist, non-technical, and does not mention the words oil depletion or Peak Oil.

 

Article:    ... But I digress. I was writing about the crisis. It is this: Despite all of the happy talk you hear from lawmakers who have fooled themselves into believing that the next big exploitable oil reserve is bubbling just beneath the surface of our national will to pump it from the ground or the sea, despite profound media hand-wringing over the putative sins of the oil industry or their cronies in the car business, despite the inane congressional tendency to try to avert an energy crisis by making the car companies produce more fuel-efficient vehicles while asking consumers to do nothing except sit and wait for gasoline prices to come down, world oil production cannot match the trajectory of demand.

 

No magic turn of the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil wheel is going to alleviate that problem over the long term. No amount of U.S. military boots on the ground of someone else's oil-producing country is going to ultimately alter the inevitable outcome of rapid global consumption of a finite resource.

 

What is odd -- indeed what is scary -- is that there are so many Americans who don't get this, who don't believe it, who think that a quick fix is just around the corner.

 

... It's a useless pursuit. Truth is we've got to withdraw from oil as much as possible.

 

... There is not an inexhaustible supply of oil. There is not now, nor has there ever been, and nor will there ever be an inexhaustible finite resource. Get over it. Let's start withdrawing now. Let's face, share, and manage the pain.

 

... When it comes to oil, it's not going to get much better than this.

 

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2/         UK paves way for new nuclear plants  (Financial Times, WED 23 May)

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/df1376ee-0925-11dc-a349-000b5df10621,_i_nbePage=ff3cbaf6-3024-11da-ba9f-00000e2511c8.html

 

Comment:    One of the sessions I went to at the All-Energy conference in Aberdeen last week was about the UK national grid and its capacity. The speakers seemed to agree that even if the UK government did decide to go for nuclear, it is very unlikely to bring on the new plants as fast as they would like. There is likely to be a severe shortage of skilled workers for building the plants, due to a combination of a building boom in the UK, and boom in new nuclear plants globally.

 

Article:    Britain on Wednesday gave the green light to a new generation of nuclear power stations, publishing an energy white paper that will pave the way for billions of pounds of private investment in plants.

 

Alistair Darling, the trade and industry secretary, told parliament the government had reached the “preliminary view that it would be in the public interest to allow energy companies to invest in nuclear power”.

 

“Nuclear is an important part of our energy mix at the moment... it provides a regular and steady supply of electricity whereas electricity generated from most renewables is by its very nature intermittent,” he said.

 

The government would need to make a decision this year on whether to continue with nuclear because of the long lead time for building new plants.

 

... The government wants to end the consultation process and make a final decision on new plants by October. Even so, the process for selecting potential sites will last until 2009. Because of the long lead times in construction, any new plants are unlikely to make a significant contribution to generating capacity before 2020.

 

All but one of the UK’s existing nuclear plants are due to be decommissioned by 2024...

 

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3/         BP scraps green energy plan     (The Herald, Thu 24 may)

 

http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.1421398.0.0.php

 

Comment:    If it went ahead, this would have been one of the first carbon-capture facilities.

 

Article:    Oil giant BP last night pulled out of a £500m world-leading project which would have brought 1000 construction jobs to the north-east of Scotland, on the day the government set out its energy plans.

 

The company, which has already invested more than £30m in the Peterhead carbon capture and storage (CCS) project, said it simply could not wait for a government-sponsored competition to decide who to back to build such a plant.

 

In yesterday's energy white paper Alistair Darling, the Trade and Industry Secretary, said the competition for the project would be launched in November.

 

Alex Salmond, the First Minister, last night expressed "deep anger and disappointment" claiming the delay set out in the energy white paper had "effectively sabotaged the project at Peterhead"...

 

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4/         Austrian deal will extend Gazprom grip on European energy market     (The Times, Fri 25 May)

 

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article1837771.ece

 

Comment:    The media seem to have a tendency to exaggerate the reliability of Russia to supply gas, or not, to Europe. Gazprom’s chairman, Alexei Miller, is quoted as saying: “We see no resources for [Nabucco] and no gas reserves for it either”. It is tempting to suggest Miller would say that, wouldn’t he, but it is difficult to see where the gas for Nabucco is going to come from.

 

Article:    Gazprom is poised to strengthen its grip over the European energy market with the purchase of a stake in a strategic Austrian gas hub that would give it a powerful lever over an EU project to bring in non-Russian supplies of fuel from Central Asia and the Middle East.

 

The Russian giant has agreed to acquire a stake in Central European Gas Hub (CEGH), a company owned by OMV, the Austrian energy group, which operates a trading platform and gas storage facilities at Baumgarten, close to the Hungarian border.

 

The deal, thought to be a one-third share, could give Gazprom influence over Nabucco, a pipeline project that is opposed by the Kremlin because it is designed to bypass Russia and link Europe with gas-rich countries in the Caspian region and the Middle East.

 

Baumgarten is the proposed terminus for Nabucco, a 3,300 kilometre tube would cost €4.6 billion (£3.1 billion) and is aggressively promoted by the European Commission as a means to bring more nonRussian gas into the EU.

 

... Gazprom’s chairman, Alexei Miller, yesterday signed a memorandum of understanding with Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, OMV’s chief executive, pledging to develop Baumgarten as “the most important gas hub in continental Europe”, a rival to Zeebrugge in Belgium. The Russian and Austrian firms have close links with 47 billion cubic metres of gas flowing through the hub, equivalent to roughly half Britain’s annual consumption.

 

However, separately, Mr Miller yesterday expressed doubts that the Nabucco project would ever happen.

 

“We see no resources for [Nabucco] and no gas reserves for it either,” he told an Austrian newspaper.

 

Nabucco will be launching a marketing campaign for capacity in the pipeline this summer, but Gazprom dealt a blow to the scheme earlier this month when it secured agreement with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan – potential Nabucco suppliers – to route their gas exports through Russian territory.

 

That Gazprom deal also put paid to European hopes of a separate subsea Caspian pipeline that would link up with BP’s Shah Deniz pipeline – soon to bring gas from Azerbaijan to Erzurum, a gas hub in Turkey and the proposed starting point for Nabucco.

 

Analysts believe that Gazprom’s involvement may now be the only way to secure the investment needed to turn Nabucco into a reality. Russia is already exporting gas into Turkey through its Blue Stream pipeline under the Black Sea.

 

Simon Blakey, a gas analyst at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said Gazprom’s involvement could be a constructive way of ensuring its supply routes were opened into southeastern Europe.

 

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5/         UAE airport spend to hit $19bn  (Arabian Business, Wed 23 May)

 

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=13009:uae-airport-spend-to-hit-19-bn&Itemid=0

 

Comment:    Dubai, part of the UAE, has spent hundreds of billions of dollars building a tourist infrastructure that depends on relatively cheap oil supplies. All the tourists will have to fly in, here is an update on where the dollars are going.

 

Article:    New airport projects in the UAE account for 60% of all airport investments in the Gulf, according to Gulf News. Spend is expected to reach $19.23 billion over the next few years across six airports, in comparison to a total $13.2 billion across the other five GCC countries.

 

Six airports are under development, with expansions at Dubai International and Abu Dhabi Airports, construction of the new Dubai World Central, and projects in Sharjah, Fujairah and Ras Al Khaimah.

 

Dubai World Central, the largest investment at $8.2 billion, will handle 120 million passengers per year.

 

... Research from the Streamline Marketing Group, organiser of the Airport Show taking place in Dubai next week, says major expansions are taking place across the broader region, with $59.78 billion committed to projects in the Middle East, South Asia, Africa and the former CIS countries.

 

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6/         Petrol to hit £1 a litre within weeks as oil supply strains show     (The Guardian, Fri 25 May)

 

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2087711,00.html

 

Comment:    Higher petrol / gasoline prices in the UK are not getting the amount of media coverage that they are in the USA. The differences could hardly be starker. A rise of a few pence/litre in the UK, petrol will inevitably go over the £1/litre mark, is more likely to cause riots and road blockages than anything else. Whereas in the USA, a rise of a dollar or two / litre is more likely to lead to fundamental economic problems. On the other hand, the article below states that higher interest rates are on the way in the UK. Apparently, each 1% increase in interest rates is an extra £100 or so in monthly payments, average.

 

Article:    Petrol prices were on course last night to break the pound-a-litre barrier after the cost of crude oil on global markets rose to its highest level this year.

 

With the US navy putting on a show of strength off the Iranian coast and oil workers in Nigeria launching an indefinite strike, a barrel of Brent crude was trading for almost $72 last night - up more than a dollar on the day and within six dollars of last summer's record $78.40.

 

Industry experts in the UK said motorists - already paying an average 97p a litre on forecourts - could expect to be paying £1 or more within six weeks.

 

Ray Holloway, of the Petrol Retailers Association, said petrol prices had been edging higher throughout spring against a backdrop of US stockpiling of crude. But he said the latest increase meant the upward pressure would continue for the next two months

 

... The CBI intensified City speculation yesterday that the Bank of England will be forced into a fresh interest rates rise after the employers' organisation's monthly snapshot of industry showed the heftiest jump in prices from factories in 12 years.

 

... "The Bank of England will focus on the price balance contained in the survey, and it will be dismayed by what it sees," said Howard Archer of Global Insight. "The CBI survey adds to the pressure on the Bank to lift interest rates to 5.75% sooner rather than later, and a back-to-back hike in June is currently looking a very real possibility. There is an ever-growing danger that rates will reach 6% before the end of the year."...

 

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7/         Battle for the Barrels [new book - feedback]           (Duncan Clarke, Feb 2007)

 

No link.

 

Comment:   Feedback on this new book from an ODAC News subscriber.

 

Feedback:    Re. item 9. "Battle for barrels" is very tedious. Here's a flavour: "Economists have been around for many years and written lots of papers....so they must be right." (pp84-89). What!

 

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