ODAC News
Wednesday 18 July
The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
Oil Prices
1a/ Oil 'could hit $95 a barrel this year' (The
Guardian, Mon 16 Jul)
1b/ Cheap
Gasoline in Producing Countries Will Have The Rest of the World Paying More
(CIBC World Markets, Wed 18 Jul)
1c/ PETROLEUM
($US/bbl) (Bloomberg, Wed 18 Jul)
International Energy Agency Medium-Term Oil
Market Report, July 2007 – Follow Up
2/ International Energy
Agency Medium-Term Oil Market Report – Follow Up
(IEA, July 2007)
2a/ Are
these the last days of the Oil Age?
(The Times, Mon 16 Jul)
2b/ U.S.
energy options (The Washington Times, Tue 17 Jul)
National Petroleum Council Report on Peak Oil
3a/ National Petroleum Council Report on Peak Oil
(Energy Bulletin, Wed 18 Jul)
3b/ The
National Petroleum Council Report
(The Oil Drum, Wed 18 Jul)
3c/ National
Petroleum Council Report Comes Up a Dry Hole
(ASPO-USA / Energy Bulletin, Tue 17 Jul)
Natural Gas
4a/ Iran,
Turkey sign Europe gas deal (Arabian Business, Sat
14 Jul)
4b/ US
queries wisdom of Turkish-Iranian gas deal
(NTV MSNBC, Mon 16 Jul)
4c/ China,
Turkmenistan sign natural gas deals (International Herald
Tribune, Tue 17 Jul)
4d/ CNPC
to import 30 bln cubic meters of natural gas annually
from Turkmenistan
(China View, Wed 18 Jul)
4e/ Debates
Over Iran And Natural Gas (TurkishPress.com, Tue 17 Jul)
7/ Gazprom
Plans China Gas Pipeline Parallel to Oil Link (Bloomberg, Tue 17 Jul)
8/ UK
NBP gas prices climb further as low Norwegian flows continue
(Platts, Fri 13 Jul)
Biofuels
5a/ UN
warns it cannot afford to feed the world (Financial
Times, Sun 15 Jul)
5b/ Biofuel
producer faces supplier friction
(Financial Times, Fri 13 Jul)
Economy
6/ Lenders
predict UK property crunch as rates take effect
(The Times, Tue 17 Jul)
Prius
V Hummer
9a/ PRIUS
OUTDOES HUMMER IN ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE
(Impact Lab [The Recorder], Wed 14 Mar)
9b/ Prius Still Not Sitting Pretty (The Recorder, Wed
28 Mar)
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1a/ Oil 'could hit $95 a barrel this year'
(The Guardian, Mon 16 Jul)
http://business.guardian.co.uk/economy/story/0,,2127825,00.html
Article: The key Middle Eastern
members of oil cartel OPEC were tonight coming under pressure for an immediate
increase in production after a warning from Goldman Sachs that prices could hit
a peak of $95 a barrel by the end of the year.
With a new bout of speculative activity today driving
Brent crude to within a few cents of the record $78.65 reached last summer,
Goldman said shortages of supply were behind the steady rise in oil prices.
A further increase in oil prices would add to
inflationary pressures in developed countries, with some
Despite recent declines in North Sea output,
The pound today exploited nervousness about further
fall out from the
... "Our estimates show that keeping OPEC
production at current levels and assuming normal winter weather, total
petroleum inventories would fall by over 150m barrels or 6.5% by the end of the
year, which would push prices to $95 a barrel with a demand response."
OPEC today sought to calm increasingly frenzied global
energy markets when it predicted that world demand for oil would grow only
modestly in 2008. It downplayed the need for extra production, citing greater
energy efficiency, higher taxes and conservation as factors limiting the growth
in demand.
1b/ Cheap Gasoline in Producing Countries Will Have The Rest of the World
Paying More
(CIBC World Markets, Wed 18 Jul)
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/feature1.pdf
Comment: CIBC World Markets have
produced several reports relevant to Peak Oil, but have been quiet of late. The
conclusion of this report is that rocketing internal consumption of oil
products in the oil exporting countries means they will be exporting less oil,
with oil prices rising to $100/barrel shortly. The problem in a nutshell can be
summarised by the title of Table 1: Traditional Suppliers Export Capacity
Will Decline.
Article: Global oil demand growth is
headed for a rise of close to 2% in 2007, double last year’s pace.
Unfortunately, supply growth will be hard pressed to keep pace, with
conventional production having recently fallen for a third year in a row, and
many projects like the Thunderhorse
Gulf platform or the Kashagan
project in the
1c/ PETROLEUM ($US/bbl) (Bloomberg, Wed
18 Jul)
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html
PRICE CHANGE %
CHANGE TIME
Nymex Crude
Future 75.05
1.03
1.39
07/18
Dated Brent
Spot
79.08 .61
.77
07/18
WTI Cushing
Spot
75.05 1.03
1.39
07/18
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2/ International Energy Agency Medium-Term Oil Market Report – Follow
Up (IEA, July 2007)
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/iea20070707.pdf
(1.87 Mb)
Comment: As noted in item 1 of last Wednesday’s ODAC News, the IEA
released their Medium-Term Oil Market Report Monday of last week, which was
duly reported by all the major media outlets, including the Financial Times and
the Wall Street Journal. The IEA has been hinting at oil supply problems for at
least the last three years, but last week’s MT-OMR took everyone by
surprise because it went beyond hints and stated clearly – oil demand
will outstrip supply within the next 5 years. Not exactly a declaration of
imminent Peak Oil, but the end results are the same. Anyone familiar with Peak
Oil will know what the implications of demand outstripping supply are –
not nice. The big question was, would any of the media outlets follow up the
IEA report with a discussion of the implications of the report? It can be
stated that the response was pathetic. ‘The media’ is still not
ready to let their readers face reality. But two outstanding articles were
published, one by none other than the
2a/ Are these the last days of the Oil Age?
(The Times, Mon 16 Jul)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/william_rees_mogg/article2080497.ece
Article: [Last paragraph]
… The world is coming to the end of the age of oil, which produced its
own technology, its balance of power, its own economy, its pattern of society.
It does not greatly matter whether the oil supply has peaked already or is
going to peak in five or 12 years’ time. There is a huge adjustment to be
made. There will be some benefits, including higher efficiencies and perhaps a
better approach to global warming. But nothing will take us back towards the
innocent expectation of indefinite expansion of the first months of the new
millennium.
2b/
http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070717/EDITORIAL/107170006/1013
http://www.odac-info.org/news_archive/documents/2007/US_Energy_Options.htm
Comment: Written by Written by Daniel
L. Davis, half the Editorial is now missing on the Washington Times website. I
have copied an e-mail someone sent me with the whole text, which is the second
link.
See
also: On the Precipice: Energy Security and Economic Stability on the
Edge (ASPO-USA / Daniel L. Davis, Mon 16 Jul)
Article: The 117th meeting of the
National Petroleum Council (NPC) will convene tomorrow in
This failure is dangerous because it masks critical
facts that would otherwise make obvious the requirement for immediate action. A
continued failure to face the hard truth today will result in severe economic
disruptions for
I hesitate using such strong language because most
often such gloom-and-doom proclamations are dismissed out of hand as being
overly pessimistic. But the facts in this case argue persuasively that such
words are both accurate and necessary. The NPC report, "Facing the Hard
Truths about Energy," explains that supplying energy to a growing global
economy through 2030 will be very "challenging" and recommends five
strategic goals that involve various aspects of increasing energy efficiency
and diversifying supply.
... Despite these stark warnings regarding our
country's vulnerability to oil-supply reductions and his clarion call to
action, the government did nothing. If it is clear that a disruption in supply
would have profound impacts on our country, and both evidence and common sense
indicate that in the near future the supply of oil will fall markedly below
demand, a mitigating action plan must be an immediate, non-negotiable
requirement.
In a special report published today on the Web site
for the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas — USA
(www.aspo-usa.com), I list a series of prudent recommendations for both the
government and energy industry to begin implementing immediately. In this
report, I lay out in detail why optimistic projections such as those found in
the NPC report have virtually no chance of being realized.
After his "Shockwave" experience, Mr. Gates
conceded, "Even among individuals who have spent years contending with
security and energy issues, it was surprising to learn the extent to which
seemingly small disruptions in world oil supplies could inflict serious
economic damage and alter the global security environment." What a tragedy
it would be if we discover the truth of his words as a result of our failure to
act when sufficient time and knowledge were available. Already two years have
passed since his warning, resulting in no meaningful government or industry
action.
This may be our last chance.
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3a/ National Petroleum Council Report on Peak Oil
(Energy Bulletin, Wed 18 Jul)
http://www.energybulletin.net/32208.html
Comment: The US National Petroleum
Council has been investigating Peak oil for over a year now. The Energy
Bulletin page contains an NPC Press Release, plus links to relevant documents.
The report has nicely avoided any sense of urgency regarding impending oil
shortages.
3b/ The National Petroleum Council Report
(The Oil Drum, Wed 18 Jul)
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2789
Article: The National Petroleum
Council is due to report today on a study requested by US Energy Secretary
Bodman. Here are some of my concerns about it.
3c/ National Petroleum Council Report Comes Up a Dry Hole
(ASPO-USA / Energy Bulletin, Tue 17 Jul)
http://www.energybulletin.net/32147.html
Comment: A Press Release from ASPO-USA
pointing out some of the shortcomings of the NPC report.
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4a/
Comment: There have been several
articles over the last few months suggesting that the Nabucco
gas pipeline project is dead because of lack of gas supplies. The latest
news of a deal between
Article:
On top of this,
4b/
http://www.ntvmsnbc.com/news/414345.asp
Comment: The
Article: It was not wise to rely on
Commenting on a memorandum of understanding signed
between Turkey and Iran on the weekend that foresees natural gas from
Turkmenistan being pumped through Iran to Turkey and then for export, US
embassy spokesperson Kathy Schalow indicated problems
could arise.
Schalow
said that International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) sanctions on
The
4c/
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/07/17/business/AS-FIN-China-Turkmenistan-Gas.php
Comment:
Article:
Details of the deals, signed during a visit to
The report comes amid a flurry of deals by Chinese
government oil and gas companies to explore for and develop energy sources in
former Soviet republics,
4d/ CNPC to import 30 bln cubic meters of natural
gas annually from
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-07/18/content_6391043.htm
Article: China National Petroleum
Corporation (CNPC), the country's largest oil producer, announced Tuesday that
it will import 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas each year through the planned
Central Asia Gas Pipeline for 30 years from
Witnessed by Chinese President Hu Jintao and visiting
Both countries signed a general
agreement on gas cooperation in April 2006.
The signing of the two agreements
is a substantial step forward to materialize the general agreement, indicating
that gas cooperation between the two countries had entered a new stage, said
CNPC in its news release.
The planning of Central Asia Gas
Pipeline, actively supported by Central Asia countries, would be conducive to
the collaboration and development of
Berdymukhammedov
said previously that
The CNPC has planned to build a
second west-east natural gas pipeline from 2008 to 2010, which will run 6,500 kilometers from northwest
4e/ Debates Over
http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=185733
Article: But, it shouldn’t be
forgotten that no agreement has been signed with
1. These efforts with
2. The
3. Such cooperation challenges Russian domination in
the region and so could disturb it. Will this situation have a negative impact
on
4. If these efforts bear fruit, how will be
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5a/ UN warns it cannot afford to feed the world
(Financial Times, Sun 15 Jul)
Article: Rising prices for food have
led the United Nations programme fighting famine in Africa and other regions to
warn that it can no longer afford to feed the 90m people it has helped for each
of the past five years on its budget.
The World Food Programme feeds people in countries
including
Josette Sheeran, WFP executive director, said in an interview with
the Financial Times: “In a world where our contributions are holding
fairly steady, this [cost increase] means we are able to reach far less
people.”
She said policymakers were becoming more concerned
about the impact of biofuel demand on food prices and how the world would
continue to feed its expanding population.
The warning could re-ignite the debate on food versus
fuel amid concerns biofuel production will sustain food inflation and hit the
world’s poorest people.
The WFP said its purchasing costs had risen
“almost 50 per cent in the last five years”. The UN organisation
said the price it pays for maize had risen up to 120 per cent in the past sixth
months in some countries.
Biofuel demand is soaking up grain production as is
rising consumption in emerging countries for animal feed.
“We face the tightest agriculture markets in
decades and, in same cases, on record,” Ms Sheeran
said. Global wheat stocks have fallen to the lowest level in 25 years,
according to the US Department of Agriculture.
Ms Sheeran added: “We
are no longer in a surplus world.”
5b/ Biofuel producer faces supplier friction
(Financial Times, Fri 13 Jul)
Comment: Login required for full
article. It looks like biofuel companies in
Article: A dispute between a recently
floated biodiesel company and its supplier has shown how pricing conditions in
the biofuels market are burning some of the companies involved.
Shares in Renewable Power and Light, an Aim-listed
company whose assets are in the
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6/ Lenders predict
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article2087112.ece
Comment: In this case
‘crunch’ means not rising at the ridiculously high rates of the
last few years, and perhaps below the rate of inflation therefore giving a
negative real rise. Bu there are plenty of people out there who think a
real crunch is on the way, namely falling house prices.
Article: Higher interest rates are set
to provoke a crunch in
The CML also said that consumers would have to cut
back on spending as they struggle to cope with a painful increase in mortgage
repayments.
Michael Coogan,
director-general of the CML, said that house prices would grow at half their
current rate by the end of the year and would rise by only 2 to 3 per cent in
2008.
According to data released yesterday by the Department
of Communities and Local Government (DCLG), house price inflation stood at 10.9
per cent in May.
The slowdown predicted by the CML would give the property
market its worst year since 1995 and would probably mean a real-terms cut in
the value of most people’s homes.
The CML said that it had trimmed its January forecast
of a 7 per cent price rise this year and a 5 per cent rise in 2008 as interest
rates had risen more than expected.
Mr Coogan said: “I
don’t believe there will be a crash, but clearly a slowdown is more
likely in an environment of higher interest rates.”...
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7/ Gazprom Plans
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aj6JutHCE.iM
Comment: Only a week or two ago we
were told the pipelines to export gas from
Article: OAO
Gazprom aims to use fuel from fields in the
...
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8/
Comment: You have to wonder what sort of
agreement / contract the UK has with the Norwegians where they can export to
the UK any amount of gas they like, including, it seems, none.
Article:
... Part of the tightness was due to the continued
unplanned outage at BP's CATS pipeline, which has been offline for almost two
weeks now. A BP spokesman said Thursday was still no news on the situation, and
that the company's earlier assessment that the outage would likely take weeks
still stood.
Traders Friday said it was unclear whether the outage
would indeed only take weeks or in fact several months, with the former now
seen as a bearish outcome in comparison.
... Flows from
Norwegian producers said Thursday that low flows were
not due to an field or infrastructure outages, planned or unplanned, and
instead blamed relatively low
But traders expressed incredulity at these statements,
with one saying Friday: "People are edgy now because they don't know how
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9a/ PRIUS OUTDOES HUMMER IN ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE
(Impact Lab [The Recorder], Wed 14 Mar)
http://www.impactlab.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=11001
Comment: The original article does not
seem to be available on The Recorder website. It looks like it was
removed due to the controversy it caused, or perhaps the threat of legal
action? The author, Chris Demorro, compares the
energy consumption of a Toyota Prius with a Hummer.
In item 7b, he explains “I am just a college student, trying to make a
name for myself”, and reviews the original article.
Article: The Toyota Prius has become the flagship car for those in our society
so environmentally conscious that they are willing to spend a premium to show
the world how much they care. Unfortunately for them, their ultimate
‘green car’ is the source of some of the worst pollution in
Before we delve into the seedy underworld of hybrids,
you must first understand how a hybrid works. For this, we will use the most
popular hybrid on the market, the Toyota Prius.
The Prius is powered by not
one, but two engines: a standard 76 horsepower, 1.5-liter gas engine found in
most cars today and a battery- powered engine that deals out 67 horsepower and
a whooping 295ft/lbs of torque, below 2000 revolutions per minute. Essentially,
the
... However, if that was the only issue with the Prius, I wouldn’t be writing this article. It gets
much worse.
... Through a study by CNW Marketing called
“Dust to Dust,” the total combined energy is taken from all the
electrical, fuel, transportation, materials (metal, plastic, etc) and hundreds
of other factors over the expected lifetime of a vehicle. The Prius costs an average of $3.25 per mile driven over a
lifetime of 100,000 miles - the expected lifespan of the Hybrid.
The Hummer, on the other hand, costs a more fiscal
$1.95 per mile to put on the road over an expected lifetime of 300,000 miles.
That means the Hummer will last three times longer than a Prius
and use less combined energy doing it.
So, if you are an environmentalist - ditch the Prius. Instead, buy one of the most economical cars
available - a Toyota Scion xB. The Scion only costs a
paltry $0.48 per mile to put on the road. If you are still obsessed over gas
mileage - buy a Chevy Aveo and fix that lead foot...
9b/ Prius Still Not Sitting Pretty
(The Recorder, Wed 28 Mar)
http://clubs.ccsu.edu/recorder/editorial/editorial_item.asp?NewsID=203
Article: There has been quite a bit of
debate regarding an opinion piece of mine entitled, “Prius
Outdoes Hummer in Environmental Damage.” To be honest, I couldn’t
be happier with the result. I managed to get people talking about a serious
issue, which I believe does not get nearly enough attention.
I am of course talking about the future of automotive
energy consumption. Over the past two weeks, I have seen my name splashed
across hundreds of forums, read on live radio and even discussed within earshot
of myself.
Along those lines, in the interest of fair and
balanced journalism, it should be noted that the CNW Marketing research
“Dust to Dust,” which I cited in my article, is dubious at best.
Much of the debate has centered on the lifetime
mileage of the Prius versus the Hummer. The average
expected lifespan for a Prius, according to the
report, was 100,000 miles when, in reality, the Prius
is offered in several states with a warranty up to 150,000 miles alone.
There was also a great deal of debate regarding just
which Hummer was used in the CNW report. It was the original Hummer, not the H2
or H3, which may clear up the 300,000 mile lifespan expected from a Hummer.
However, there are enough holes as large as this throughout the CNW report to
question its objectivity.
That being said, there is still fairly substantial
evidence that hybrids are not nearly as efficient; nor are they as
environmentally sound as one may think. There are many cleaner, faster and
sleeker alternatives out there waiting to be picked up. Cars such as the Tesla
Roadster, for sale now at teslamotors. com, which is
an entirely electric car that can journey up to 250 miles on a single battery
charge, as well as sprinting from 0-60mph in a blistering four seconds. And to
top it all off, it is available for about $30,000 if you opt to wait, rather
then pay an additional $20,000 to receive the next one available. The Tesla is
just one of the many options available right now and will hopefully garner more
attention in the future.
Unfortunately many of these options go largely
unnoticed simply because they don’t come from a major auto manufacturer.
This is a large part of why I wrote the article in the first place: I believe
hybrids are not going to solve our imminent energy crisis, and focusing on a
platform that still requires petrol in any amount is ultimately a band-aid for
what could become a mortal wound. But this is what many manufacturers are
offering to us; half-assed solutions to a real problem that will affect
everyone the world over. But if people are kept in the dark regarding
alternatives to oil and hybrids, then by the time real alternatives are
available, we may have dug ourselves an oil-lined grave...
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