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The Myth of Biofuels is an excellent, relatively new DVD discussing the pros (none) and cons (many) of biofuels. The myths include:
Large-scale biofuel production is sustainable
Biofuels are environmentally friendly and reduce CO2 emissions
Biofuels will help us (the USA) achieve "energy independence"
Biofuels will help the farmers
"Second-generation biofuels will save us"
Biofuels will let us continue our current way of life
The format of the DVD is a presentation given by David Fridley of the Lawrence Berkeley Labs in California and the Peak Oil educational group San Francisco Oil Awareness, which he gave to a small group of academics in June 2007. The talk does contain quite a few data-heavy slides, but they are all of excellent quality, they are explained in detail during the talk, and are available as separate slides on the DVD. The talk is one hour long, followed by a question and answer session. Fridley makes it clear from the outset that suggesting alternatives to biofuels is not one of his aims and he does not discuss other alternatives, but focuses on biofuel myths as listed above. Here is a list of the main themes:
- Explains what biofuels are, solids, liquids and gases.
- Why the boom in biofuels - we are heading for a liquid fuels crisis which some say is already here.
- How are biofuels different from oil? Biofuels do not have the energy density of oil, includes good figure with detailed explanation.
- Introduces bioethanol, and compares the two main types, starch- and sugar-derived, and cellulosic.
- The corn-to-liquid process is looked at in detail. Lengthy process. Again, good graphic discussed in detail.
- In 2007, in the USA, corn for ethanol will exceed corn for export. The USA exports 60% world market for corn.
- As demand for corn goes up, production of other crops will decline, for years, including wheat, rice and cotton.
- What is cellulosic ethanol? Discussed in some detail. Cold water put on cellulosic ethanol. Many technological obstacles to overcome.
- 25 million acres of USA rural land was lost between 1982 and 1997 to development; half from population growth, half from per-capita consumption growth.
- Explains "sustainable" from an ecological perspective, and concludes there is nothing sustainable about USA biofuels.
- Biodiesel. The four best (kg/hectare) biodiesel crops only grow in the tropics. If all the world's vegetable oil were converted to biodiesel, it would provide about 8% of world consumption of diesel. Some countries have targets of 10% biodiesel, thus the reason why some groups are convinced these targets will lead to starvation.
- Covers the EROI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested) of bioethanol. To lighten up the talk, there is a parable explaining EROI, a cartoon with 'alternative' electronic music, which has potato-eating bugs suffering a die-off. The bottom line - the EROI ratio of 30:1 that we currently benefit from, from Middle East crude oil, gives us a different society that one based on bio-ethanol with an EROI of about 2:1 will. A lot more people will be growing food themselves.
Apart from the cartoon, the only other bit about the presentation I was not keen on was that the camera occasionally focused on people staring at the camera. But otherwise, this is an excellent resource that is highly recommended.
Dennis Drumm of San Francisco Oil Awareness says: "The film was made to be in the public domain and folks are ENCOURAGED to copy it and share with their friends. I don't think we'll make another run after the 60 or so left are gone (it is the third printing) - but I will put the whole thing in a decent (1 gig) size up on the Internet Archive at that point."
The DVD can be purchased, and much more information available, from the San Francisco Oil Awareness website, The Myths of Biofuels.
[Posted 17 December 2007]
Nuclear Energy is going thro a global renaissance at the moment, especially in places such as China and Russia. Now might be a good time to reflect on whether it really is CO2-free, and how much uranium reserves are left. See Does nuclear energy produce no CO2? by Dave Kimble, Energy Security and Uranium Reserves from the Oxford Research Group, and Uranium Resources and Nuclear Energy by the Germany-based Energy Watch Group (PDF, 405 Kb).
[Posted 12 December 2007]
The Efficiency Paradox: Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy?
Another excellent energy paper from CIBC World Markets. In their November issue (PDF, 742 Kb) of StrategEcon, CIBC World Markets discuss the bizarre tendency for increased energy efficiency to lead to greater energy consumption (so far):
Much is being banked on the notion that improvements in energy efficiency will be the answer to both oil depletion and greenhouse gas emissions. But is it a realistic economic premise that technological change can reduce energy usage, and by implication, its carbon trail? The OPEC oil shocks spawned huge improvements in energy efficiency, particularly insofar as oil was concerned. But three decades later, we find that the net effect of all of those efficiency initiatives has been to increase the world’s appetite for crude. While oil per unit of GDP has fallen impressively in large energy-consuming economies like the United States, total oil consumption, and indeed, total energy consumption, continue to grow by leaps and bounds. The increase in energy usage has dwarfed the gains in economic efficiency. Hence, instead of capping energy demand, what we observe is that improvements in energy efficiency lead to ever and ever-greater levels of energy usage.
... To date, there has only been one sure-fire way of reducing energy consumption—shrink the economy. But even small reductions in the level of global GDP would lever huge increases in human hardship. But at the same time, reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP has not been a viable policy option. From gasoline demand to the energy requirements of the average American home, the legacy of energy efficiency improvements is ever-greater energy consumption (see pages 4-7).
In the past, the efficiency paradox has been used as an argument against efforts to promote greater energy efficiency and conservation. That is not our intention here. On the contrary, for a world facing the twin challenges of oil depletion and global climate change, there has never been a more urgent need for both. But in order for total efficiency to actually curb total energy usage, as opposed to energy intensity, consumers must be kept from reaping the benefits of those initiatives in ever-greater energy consumption. Otherwise, energy usage will be the beneficiary of our best efforts towards greater energy efficiency. The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
[Posted 11 December 2007]
Peak Oil and Climate Change - An Integrated Policy Response
Ian Dunlop has outlined the need for an integrated policy response for Australia to the twin challenges of Peak Oil and Climate Change. Full report as submitted to the Prime Ministerial Task Group on Emissions Trading.
Climate change and peak oil are inextricably linked. Each one is a major issue in its own right, but their convergence has received minimal attention, which is unfortunate as it is likely to have far greater impact than the sum of the individual parts. Policy must ensure that solutions to the one reinforce, and do not conflict with, solutions to the other.
Current piecemeal government policy is totally inadequate to meet the challenges of climate change. Emissions trading is now, reluctantly, under discussion but it is only one component of the comprehensive policy required. Peak oil is barely on the agenda, although it may be the issue which has the greatest impact in the short-term. This paper suggests a comprehensive, integrated policy, at both global and national levels, which will provide a coherent response to both issues.
Above all, visionary, principled, long-term leadership is need from government, the community and business. Short-term political or corporate expediency is no longer acceptable; bi-partisan cooperation is essential. Action is required in the next 6-12 months, not in the 3-5 years favoured in political debate.
Ian Dunlop is a senior member of ASPO-Sydney. He is an engineer and was formerly a senior international oil, gas and coal industry executive. He chaired the Australian Coal Association in 1987-88, chaired the Australian Greenhouse Office Experts Group on Emissions Trading from 1998-2000 and was CEO of the Australian Institute of Company Directors from 1997-2001. He has a particular interest in the interaction of corporate governance, corporate responsibility and sustainability.
[Posted 11 December 2007]
Oil Peak and Gas Peak as cross cutting issues
Brian Davey of the Feasta Energy and Climate Working Group (Feasta) gave the following PowerPoint presentation to Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire Local Authorities Energy Partnership in Matloc on 24th November - Oil Peak and Gas Peak as cross cutting issues (PDF, 910 Kb). You might find some useful ideas for presentations of your own. Brian's contact details are on slide 14. Brian is a freelance ecological economist and a local member of the embryonic Transition Nottingham group. He previously spent several years as a development worker setting up a community garden and organic horticulture project in Nottingham called Ecoworks. The Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire Local Authority Energy Partnership is a network set up for information exchange between officials with energy and related responsibilities and covers all the local authorities in the geographical area of the two counties. Apart from its quarterly meeting members share information on energy, climate and related policy issues by regular mailings on the internet.
[Posted 11 December 2007]
UK Oil and Gas Production Forecasts: An Overview
The London-based Energy Institute held its annual Oil Depletion conference on Nov. 14th. ODAC's contribution was a talk on UK oil and gas depletion, UK Oil and Gas Production Forecasts: An Overview (PP PDF, 1.69 Mb).
[Posted 10 December 2007]
Global Witness is a group that: "exposes the corrupt exploitation of natural resources and international trade systems, to drive campaigns that end impunity, resource-linked conflict, and human rights and environmental abuses." (see About Us). Over the last year or two they have been paying increasing attention to Peak Oil. This week they launched their first report on Peak Oil. Simon Taylor from Global Witness explains:
We have just released our new short paper - "A Failure of Leadership: How Action on Climate Change Will be Overwhelmed by the Energy Crisis". It is authored by Global Witness, but published by Global Witness and the Heinrich Böll Foundation (HBF), with HBF distributing it at the UN's climate change meeting in Bali.
It is very short, very selective and very simplified - but this is because of space constraints, the opportunity it represented [i.e. Bali]. As such it deliberately does not go into solutions etc, beyond a massive first step of simply recognition of the problem. We are returning to producing a major follow-up document, which will go into more detail and examine other issues around this nexus of energy security and climate change, which we will push out globally.
For the moment, the paper should be considered as an extension of Global Witness' work on the role of natural resources in funding conflict. As energy availability declines, the world faces an increased risk of conflict - the ultimate war over natural resources - as powerful industrialised countries engage in an escalating competition for energy supplies. Such competition will put at risk hard won natural resource governance reforms such as the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), one of the keys to creating government accountability around extractive industry revenues. The scale of the impending crisis of energy supplies is little understood amongst policy experts, let alone properly acknowledged by politicians, and there are no effective measures being put in place to address the situation. Furthermore, the resultant geopolitical and economic impacts of a declining energy supply, will likely invade the political space required to address the climate crisis.
Global Witness exposes and breaks the links between the exploitation of natural resources, conflict, corruption and human rights abuses. In the twelve years since we launched our first campaign we have created a growing international awareness that poor governance and unaccountability in relation to the exploitation of natural resources leads not only to environmental degradation, but also to conflict, entrenched poverty and massive human suffering.
Report: A Failure of Leadership: How Action on Climate Change Will be Overwhelmed by the Energy Crisis (PDF, 446 Kb)
[Posted 07 December 2007]
What Will We Eat When The Oil Runs Out?
On the 22nd November, Richard Heinberg, Peak Oil educator extraordinaire, gave the Soil Association's annual Lady Eve Balfour Memorial Lecture, entitled What Will We Eat When The Oil Runs Out? A lecture outline, short summary of the event on YouTube, full transcript of the lecture and podcast, plus further information on the panel discussion that followed, are available from the Soil Association website.
An ODAC contact, Simon Wheeler, attended the lecture/panel discussion and took some notes on ODAC's behalf. Read Simon's thoughts.
David Strahan interviewed Richard Heinberg at the event. See Localise and go organic to avert post-peak famine - Heinberg (article plus podcast).
The lecture was reported by the UK's largest (by sales) broadsheet newspaper, The Telegraph. The article was in the 'Earth' section of the newspaper: Apocalyptic vision of a post-fossil fuel world. Such a gloomy title does not exactly inspire, as in 'must read', but it is still a pretty good article because it focuses on the positive, what can and must be done to avoid said apocalypse.
Incidentally, the Soil Association has taken a lot of flack in the media over the past few months for its recent suggestion of stripping organic certification from any produce flown in from overseas. The SA's argument is based on the effects of importing food by air on global warming. Their critics say that given the thousands of flights every day for cheap holidays, a few flights to air freight food is a small price to pay to bring in substantial income to otherwise fairly impoverished countries (e.g. mange tout from Kenya). Peak Oil will render the importation of food from Africa by air impossible, eventually, and yet the Soil Association has so far not mentioned Peak Oil in its end-of-air-freight campaign.
[Posted 03 December 2007]
As Peak Oil approaches, we see modern industrial countries persuing transport developments that just do not make sense, major new roads and airports spring to mind. Even for those (in the UK) local governments that have sustainable development in mind (think climate change), optimum use of energy is rarely considered. James Skinner discusses/promotes ultra light rail:
"Some initiatives have been taking place in the private sector, aimed at phasing out dependence on fossil fuels in urban public transport. Official bodies such as the 'Department for Transport' and 'Transport for London' appear to be undisturbed by their almost total reliance on fossil fuels. They seem to believe that providing ever more diesel buses, regardless of expense, will eventually persuade the public to abandon their cars and rely on public transport. Bus patronage figures, however, tell a different tale. DfT subsidies of diesel fuel for buses now cost the taxpayer £1 million per day. TfL subsidise their 8,000 diesel buses at the rate of over £750 million a year. Countrywide, diesel bus subsidies now top £2.5 billion per annum. Despite this, bus passenger figures outside London continue to stagnate and have scarcely reached the level of 20 years ago in London. Carbon emissions from public transport continue to increase. A private sector group of companies has been developing, promoting and demonstrating a new mode of public transport, Ultra Light Rail, over the last 15 years. One such company, Sustraco Ltd, has put forward proposals for a new, affordable strategy for urban public transport, which will be free from dependence on fossil fuels, thus eliminating net carbon emissions, reducing noise and improving air quality. This can be achieved by using energy efficient light trams, fuelled by an on-board biomethane power source, to replace urban diesel buses." An Urban Public Transport Strategy for the UK.
Perhaps way ahead of everyone else in thinking about Peak Oil and transport is Canadian Richard Gilbert. Along with his colleague Anthony Perl, they have written a book on the subject called Transport Revolutions: Moving People and Freight Without Oil, due for release this month. The book is reviewed by the authors in a commentary for ASPO-USA, Preparing Transportation for Oil Depletion.
Update (07 December): An individualized transport system (Personal Rapid Transit or "podcars") is being developed which potentially can be 100% solar powered. A talk on this was recently given by Ron Swenson in Stockholm, sponsored by the Swedish Institute for Transport and Communications Analysis (SIKA) and the Centre for Sustainable Development (CHU) at the Royal Institute of Technology. Articles linked from the home page at www.solarevolution.com give more details (see 'Dawn of the Solar Era', box on the right). "How can we turn sun radiation into automotion?" has a table on page 5 which shows the distinct advantages of this technology over automobiles in terms of energy, safety, emissions, etc. The advantages are similar relative to heavy rail, light rail or even ultra-light rail. Additional details can be found at The future of Automotive Energy . Others have built non-solar prototypes (Sweden's Vectus) and pilot projects (Heathrow's UlTra). Solarevolution and / or others will be building prototypes powered by solar within a year or two.
[Posted 03 December 2007]
Corn for Ethanol: An Inflation Crop
In their October issue (PDF, 775 kb) of StrategEcon, CIBC World Markets discuss the role the USA's corn-for-ethanol program is having on inflation: <<Boosted by legislated demand, heavy subsidies and tariffs, ethanol production will continue to rise strongly in the near term. Going yellow will make only a negligible contribution to both meeting US energy demand and reducing GHG emissions. But it will make a much larger
contribution to inflation over the next several years.>>
[Posted 02 December 2007]
The Oil and Money 2007 conference was held in London, Oct 30-31. This year the presentations are easily available, and as usual there were a few talks there are of interest to the Peak Oil / Gas community. Presentations (at bottom of the page). See Sadad Ibrahim Al Husseini's talk for example. David Strahan interviewed Al Husseini at the conference, see Oil has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Huseini. Last year's talks are also worth a look, Oil and Money 2006.
[Posted 02 December 2007]
A Crude Awakening and Crude Impact - Two Peak Oil Films
A Crude Awakening (83mins) and Crude Impact (91mins) are both excellent Peak Oil films, and similar in style and content. They run thro a series of themes, listed below, interviewing various Peak Oil experts, some well known, a handful the same in both films, most not, breaking up the interviews with lots of excellent footage, and haunting music. Apart from these films, I have never heard of or seen Terry Lynn Karl (Professor of Political Science, Stanford University) before, but she is a very interesting speaker in both films, making the links between oil and wars, oil and poverty e.g. in A Crude Awakening: Darfur is an oil war; large, young population in Saudi Arabia with lack of jobs. Average income has dropped from La$28,000 15 years ago to $6,000 per annum now. There has been a huge drop in the standard of living of the average Saudi. Prof Karl gives the impression that Saudi Arabia as a 'stable' state will not last much longer; two options for securing sufficient energy - militarise the taking of oil, or begin to prepare for the end of era of cheap oil, invest in alternative technologies. Both films discuss the history of oil and how we use it, geopolitics, and move on to Peak Oil and potential solutions. For the moment, if you want to buy a DVD to introduce your friends/ community to Peak Oil, you will have to settle for Crude Impact since A Crude Awakening is not yet available on DVD, but it is just about to start showing at cinemas in the UK (see details for buying/watching below).
Themes - A Crude Awakening
Precious and non-renewable
We use it for everything!
From Boom to Bust (Looks at Baku, Azerbaijan which boomed in the late 19th century, and some parts of Venezuela where oil was discovered in the 1920s. Both areas are now dead.)
A Magnet for War
The Numbers Don't Add Up (Middle East reserves)
Peaking Out (Looks at placed that have peaked already. Includes interviews with M. King Hubbert.)
An Insatiable Demand
The End of the American Dream (Hummers. 10 mpg steady on the road.)
Life After The Peak
Themes - Crude Impact
Interconnection - Man and Oil
Sources of Addiction
Foreign Policy Impact
Human Impact (Looks at Ecuador/Texaco and Nigeria/Shell)
Media
Earth Impact (climate Change and Species Extinction)
Peak oil
Peak Impact
Future Impact - reducing energy
Future Impact - Making our voices heard
Future Impact - Hope
A Crude Awakening was recently reviewed on the Lloyd's List website - Waking up to the truths of oil’s past, present and future., and by the Sunday Observer, New 'disaster' movie warns world of oil apocalypse. Both films were reviewed on The Oil Drum: Europe last December.
Trailers
A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash - trailer (YouTube, 2m 13s)
Crude Impact - trailer (YouTube, 2m 32s)
A Crude Awakening - The Oil Crash, Viewings throughout the UK, Nov-Dec 2007
The award-winning Peak Oil film A Crude Awakening will be shown at public cinemas throughout the UK during November / December 2007. The venues so far include: Soho (London), Lancaster, Oxford, Manchester, Glasgow, Sheffield, Birmingham, Bradford, Leicester, Dumfries, Edinburgh, Falmouth, Inverness, Cardiff. Further information.
Crude Impact is available to buy as a DVD from the Crude Impact website.
[Posted 05 November 2007]
Power Politics: the dash for the world's energy resources
In June 2007, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) organised a conference entitled 'Built to last – energy policy and the built environment'. The first talk, Power Politics: the dash for the world's energy resources, was from Mark Griffiths, BSc FRICS FAAV, a UK rural land man agent consultant and a spokesman on energy for RICS, whose presentation themes were energy security, peak oil and geo-political dynamics.
The presentation is a high-level look at many of the problems facing energy supplies for the UK. It is rarely understood how critical the natural gas supplies outlook is for the UK - Griffiths sums up the situation excellently. The UK has already moved from self-sufficiency to increasing import dependency: "Current reduced gas prices are largely due to new Norwegian pipeline coming on stream 2006 – but this only a temporary reprieve. Fast depleting UK North Sea fields will mean Norwegian supply is not sufficient after 2010." Griffiths discusses how dependent Russia, Middle East, and Africa are as alternative gas suppliers, and the picture is not good. The presentation also gives an overview of uranium supplies and asks: "Will There Be A Uranium Shortage?", and continues with a discussion of Peak Oil. The presentation concludes with the links between Peak Oil and Climate Change, and gives some answers to the question "What Is Sustainability?".
Slide 65 (out of 68): "What Is The Bottom Line? Two main options in the face of tightening oil and gas supplies: 1/ To try and stay on the oil/gas treadmill and to expand investment in unconventional sources (with aggravated global warming impacts if carbon mitigation not successfully applied) 2/ To invest in energy conservation and alternative technology."
The most important contribution of this presentation is that it discusses all the fossil fuel / nuclear options for the UK, and makes clear that all have their problems. For oil, gas and uranium this may mean falling supplies in the near-term, at the same time as we try to prepare for Climate Change.
View PowerPoint presentation (PDF, 809 kb). Further information supplied by Mark Griffiths: "The views in this presentation are his own and not necessarily those of the RICS. The source for the uranium supply/demand graph on slide 35 is Cameco, April 2007. Slide 47 of the presentation refers to KMPG - this should be KPMG."
[Posted 01 November 2007]
How do we reconcile growth, emissions and resources?
In early October, Simon Roberts, a member of the Foresight Group at Arup, a global design and engineering consultancy, gave a presentation entitled 'How do we reconcile growth, emissions and resources?' to the Institute of Physics in London: <<Economists have traditionally been wary of intervention by outsiders. Scientists, for their part, have tended to leave analysis of the economy to those trained in economic techniques. Economics and science rest on different paradigms. However co-ordination between the two can offer new insights in a situation where economic development is increasingly coming up against physical constraints whether in terms of limited resources or of the amounts of pollutants we exude. This talk will review research showing fundamental links between economic activity and energy consumption. It will introduce useful metrics by which to compare technology options, such as EROEI (energy return on energy invested). It will discuss confounding behaviour of the rebound effect and Khazzoom-Brookes postulate. Finally it will describe a systems dynamic model known as ECCO that enables the physical envelope of possibilities for an economy to be explored. Example runs of the model will illustrate that tools such as this will be essential for a balanced approach to the uncharted waters of technological, economic and societal change that lie ahead.>> Roberts' PowerPoint presentation is available from the Institute of Physics website.
[Posted 31 October 2007]
ASPO-USA Peak Oil Conference - Reviews and Presentations
The ASPO-USA Peak Oil conference 2007 was held in Houston, Texas 17-20 October (Agenda). A brief summary from Robert Hirsch: <<Highlights that might be of some interest: 1. Henry Groppe (Groppe, Long & Littel), T. Boone Pickens (Mesa Petroleum) and Matt Simmons (Simmons & Co.) believe that the world is at maximum oil production now. Charlie Maxwell (Weeden & Co.) believes it will likely be a year or two later. 2. Tom Petrie (Merrill Lynch) opined that peak oil will be a major inflection point in human evolution. 3. John Olson (Sanders Morris Harris) described the recent run up in oil prices and the simultaneous increase in world oil demand as "upside-down elasticity." It's not supposed to work that way! 4. David Hughes (Canadian Geological Survey) opined that peak oil trumps climate change and believes that peak coal might occur around 2025. He agreed with Rutledge (Cal Tech) that the hydrocarbons in the IPCC forecast do not exist, i.e., there is not enough CO2 to force the IPCC forecasted climate changes. 5. Kyriacos Zygourakis (Department Chair in Chemical & Biomolecular Engineering, Rice University) did a logical and factual dissection of biofuels. Not only is corn-to-ethanol an energy loser, cellulose-to ethanol will likely have low net energy. 6. Roger Bezdek (MISI) presented the current worldwide airline, airplane, FAA, and airport forecasts for the next few decades, noting that they all foresee dramatic increases in flights and activities, due primarily to robust world GDP growth. Noting that "causality works both ways," the GDP declines that result from peak oil will cause major contractions in the airline industry and the cities that depend on air travel, e.g., Las Vegas. Finally, there's a study out of the Fed in Cleveland and the Energy Watch Group saying that the peak is now.>>
The Oil Drum has series of excellent summaries from each section of the conference:
Houston ASPO - the Workshop day
A more detailed description of most of the speakers' presentations is available from Chris Nelder (PDF, 162 Kb, 47pp)
Higher Oil Prices Blamed on Peaking Production, Voice of America, video and article on the conference
The conference presentations can be viewed here.
[Posted 31 October 2007]
Two Interviews With Chris Skrebowski
Chris Skrebowski is editor of the London-based Energy Institute's Petroleum Review and an ODAC Board Trustee. Last week he attended and gave a presentation at the ASPO-USA Peak Oil conference in Houston, Texas. David Strahan interviewed Skrebowski focussing on his ASPO-USA presentation: "There are only 1200 days to go until global oil production reaches its all-time peak, according to the editor of the Petroleum Review. Worse, says Chris Skrebowski, the chances are the crisis will break even sooner. Skrebowski made the claim at the ASPO conference in Houston last week on the basis of the latest results from his Megaprojects model, which he explains in an interview with Lastoilshock.com." 1200 days to peak oil
Earlier this week, the Germany-based Energy Watch Group published a Peak Oil report which forecasts that Peak is occuring about now (see item below). Julian Darley of Global Public Media discusses the report with Chris Skrebowski: "Chris Skrebowski, editor of the UK Petroleum Review, speaks with GPM's Julian Darley about the remarkable new oil report from the German-based Energy Watch Group, which states that world oil production peaked in 2006 and will decline by half as soon as 2030." Skrebowski says by end of quarter one 2008 (end of March) various sets of data should give us a much clearer picture of whether Peak has passed or is still to come. Chris Skrebowski on alarming new peak oil report.
[Posted 31 October 2007]
New Report Says Peak Has Occured Already
The Energy Watch Group have published a new report on Peak Oil called Crude Oil – The Supply Outlook. The report states Peak Year was 2006. Maybe, but we are not likely to be sure about that until well into 2008 if not later. Many forecasts are converging on 2010-2012, assuming ‘all goes well’. The report contains some useful sections, for example Annex 2 contains a “Critique of Oil Supply Projections by USGS, EIA and IEA”. Contains some very interesting graphs, see figures 5 (Oil producing countries past peak) and 6 (Oil production of the oil majors from 1997 to 2007). From the report:
• “Peak oil is now”.
For quite some time, a hot debate is going on regarding peak oil. Institutions close to the energy industry, like CERA, are engaging in a campaign trying to “debunk” the “peak oil theory”. This paper is one of many by authors inside and outside ASPO (the Organisation for the Study of Peak Oil) showing that peak oil is anything but a “theory”, it is real and we are witnessing it already.
According to the scenario projections in this study, the peak of world oil production was in 2006.
The timing of the peak in this study is by a few years earlier than seen by other authors (like e.g. Campbell, ASPO, and Skrebowski) who are also well aware of the imminent oil peak. One reason for the difference is a more pessimistic assessment of the potential of future additions to oil production, especially from offshore oil and from deep sea oil due to the observed delays in announced field developments. Another reason are earlier and greater declines projected for key producing regions, especially in the Middle East.
• The most important finding is the steep decline of the oil supply after peak.
This result – together with the timing of the peak – is obviously in sharp contrast to the projections by the IEA. But the decline is also more pronounced compared with the more moderate projections by ASPO.
Yet, this result conforms very well with the recent findings of Robelius in his doctoral thesis. This is all the more remarkable because a different methodology and different data sources have been used.
• The projections for the global oil supply are as follows:
- 2006: 81 Mb/d
- 2020: 58 Mb/d (IEA: 1051 Mb/d)
- 2030: 39 Mb/d (IEA: 1162 Mb/d)
• A regional analysis shows that, apart from Africa, all other regions show declining productions by 2020 compared to 2005. By 2030, all regions show significant declines compared to 2005.
The report was covered by The Guardian, Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study, and CNN, Report: 'World at peak oil output'.
Earlier this year the Energy Watch Group published a report on Peak Coal, last year Peak Uranium, both available here.
[Posted 31 October 2007]
Peak oil means peak economy - Hirsch
David Strahan, author of The Last Oil Shock, interviews Robert Hirsch at the ASPO-USA conference in Texas this week. Hirsch is best known for his work Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management (PDF, 1.61 Mb), and Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts [PDF, 494 Kb]. In this interview Hirsch discusses three scenarios for peaking: a peak, a plateau, and a peak exacerbated by producer countries cutting back on production. His most recent work indicates that global GDP (gross domestic product - one way of measuring economic activity) will fall at roughly the same rate as oil depletion i.e. a 5% fall in oil production would lead to a 5% fall in GDP. Hirsch is also in no doubt that the USA will have to introduce fuel rationing as a means of tackling the upcoming shortages. Peak oil means peak economy - Hirsch (17m 37s).
[Posted 19 October 2007]
Russian Oil - a Depletion Rate Model estimate of the future Russian oil production and export
A new diploma thesis from Aram Mäkivierikko, a member of the Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, on Russian Oil. 100 pages. From the thesis: <<Oil is a heavily used natural resource with a limited supply. Russia is one of the largest oil producers and the second largest oil exporting country in the world. Many surrounding countries are dependent on Russian energy. Swedish oil import from Russia has grown from 5% to 35% during 2001-2005. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused the Russian oil production to drop by 50%. The production is currently growing again – but how will it develop in the future? This report studies different scenarios for Russian oil production and export based on three different estimates of how much oil Russia has left today (70, 120 or 170 Gb), combined with estimates about how fast Russia can produce the oil (a depletion rate of 3%, 4.5% or 6%). In the worst case, Russian oil production and also the oil export will peak very soon or has already done so in 2006. In the best case, a constant export can be held until 2036. It is not likely that the Russian production will increase more than 5-10% over today’s level.>> View Thesis (PDF, Warning 9.2 Mb).
[Posted 18 October 2007]
ASPO-6 DVDs / Presentations Now Available
The PowerPoint presentations from the ASPO-6 conference in Cork, Ireland in September are now available online.
The entire proceedings from the conference were recorded and available to order on a 5 DVD boxset. Each of the four sessions is captured on a single DVD. The fifth DVD contains bonus interviews with the conference speakers carried out during the conference. You can watch a short trailer of the conference DVD on YouTube. You can order the DVD set from ASPO-Ireland.
[Posted 18 October 2007]
The Hedberg Conference, or How Much Oil Is Left Exactly?
We do not know how much oil is left exactly, and never will, it is not an exact science, but the Hedberg Conference held in Colorado Springs, USA in November 2006 was aimed at answering this question as best as possible.
The conference was chaired by Richard Nehring. It was, until the ASPO-6 conference in September, a very unreported event. Prior to ASPO-6, the only information in the public domain about Hedberg was a short Oil and Gas Journal article, World oil production to peak in 15-25 years, AAPG told (Login required). The details of the conference are available from Private industry conference finds much less oil, which also contains a podcast with Ray Leonard. In his talk at ASPO-6 and in the above podcast, Leonard makes it clear that there were two camps at the Hedberg conference, in one the US Geological Survey, and in the other pretty much everyone else. When it came to discussing oil reserves, in each of the regions discussed the USGS figures were inflated by up to five times compared to what the industry original data suggested. See slide 4 in Leonard's PowerPoint presentation (PDF, 232 Kb - the slides require rotating by 90 degrees to view properly. One way to do this is to save locally and rotate in Adobe Reader) from ASPO-6, which compares USGS estimations with Industry estimations.
Dave Cohen wrote an article for ASPO-USA discussing some of the results from the Hedberg conference, Limits to Growth and the Hedberg Conference: "... The Hedberg meeting brought together the world's experts on the future oil supply. Unfortunately, no one from the peak oil research community was invited to attend. Representatives of government organizations, the world's oil companies, consultancies and independent geologists shared their proprietary data to assess what our oil future is, and thereby examine the peak oil question. The Hedberg conference has been in the news lately due to a talk given by Ray Leonard, former Yukos VP for Exploration and New Ventures, to ASPO 6 in Cork, Ireland. Leonard presented his take on the Western Siberian basin at Hedberg, and gave his views on the Hedberg findings at the Ireland peak oil conference... Nehring's low end scenario may be viewed as representing a high case for peak oil analysts who see the problem as being more immediate, and therefore requiring urgent attention. In his interview with writer David Strahan, Ray Leonard voiced his opinion that the world's current surplus capacity — such as it is — can be maintained for another 5 years or so. Thereafter, world oil production will begin to level off, settling in the 95-100 million barrels per day range in a "high price environment." The devil is in the details in evaluating the Hedberg low end scenario or Leonard's version of it. Some of those details are available in Nehring's slides, while others are layed out in World Oil Production to Peak in 15-25 Years, AAPG told by Alan Petzet (Oil & Gas Journal, April 23, 2007). According to Nehring, three factors support any scenario — oil resource additions from discoveries, recovery growth, and unconventional resources. Let's examine each in turn, citing concerns and asking hard questions..."
Interestingly, Richard Nehring will be giving a talk on the same theme as Ray’s at the ASPO-USA conference this week (Oct. 17-20), “Estimating Technologically and Commercially Possible Levels of Future World Oil Production”. Here are a couple of quotes from a recent Richard Nehring PowerPoint presentation (375 Kb): “With medium or high levels of ultimate resources, production could continue increasing to 2030-2040 with the plateau extending to 2060-2070”, and from the 'Conclusions': “The 21st Century - not the 20th Century - will be the Age of Oil”. Note that Nehring uses USGS data in his analysis, see slide 23. There remains, and always will remain, sufficient secrecy about the Hedberg conference to allow for radically differing viewpoints. Ray Leonard sees a plateauing of global oil production before 2020, versus Nehring's “With medium or high levels of ultimate resources, production could continue increasing to 2030-2040 with the plateau extending to 2060-2070”.
Steve Andrews of ASPO-USA interviewed Richard Nehring earlier this month (October), focusing mainly on the Hedberg conference, An Interview with Richard Nehring. Nehring touches briefly on his contrasting views with those of Ray Leonard, and yet some of his comments are consistent with a very close-term peaking in global oil production. For example, when asked "Where do you think world oil production will be in 2020?", Nehring replies: " I have a hard time seeing us get to 90 million barrels a day by 2020..." Global oil production is forecast to reach about 88 Mb/d for 2008. Assuming Nehring is referring to total liquids and not strictly crude oil, he is in fact stating oil production will not increase much higher than it is now.
[Posted 18 October 2007]
The UK Energy White Paper: An Academic Critique
Earlier this year (23 May) the UK government published its most recent Energy White Paper, Meeting the Energy Challenge. At the time, it was seen as very disappointing by many groups, not least the Peak Oil community, for its lack of vision and urgency with tackling the UK's energy supply problems. Just how woeful the white paper was can be judged by a recent post on The Oil Drum: Europe, The UK Energy White Paper: An Academic Critique, which describes a recent academic seminar to discuss the Energy White Paper: "On 25th September 2007, the BIEE [British Institute of Energy Economics], the UKERC [UK Energy Research Centre] and the Energy Institute held a seminar in London where they invited academics to critique the 2007 Energy White Paper... The purpose of the seminar was to bring together a range of academics to give a critique of the Energy White Paper – and they certainly were critical!" Of note is the section on Jonathan Stern's talk, which mainly discusses security of the UK's natural gas supplies, which are not very secure at all. At the end of this section, it states: "We have four or five years of gas surplus in the UK, perhaps up to 7 years." The UK has been a net importer of natural gas for a few years now, and just how reliant on imports we now are can be seen from the UK Dept for Business Enterprise & Regulatory Reform's (BERR, formerly DTI) natural gas statistics, Natural gas production and supply (Excel spreadsheet, 692 Kb). Look at the 'Month' tab, and for example, comparing columns C, E and G, you will see that for Jan 2007 the UK produced 80,626 GWh, exported 6,967 GWh and imported 39,245 GWh of natural gas. Stern's comment on "four or five years of gas surplus in the UK" is referring to domestic production plus imports, principally from Norway via the Langeled pipeline.
[Posted 09 October 2007]
Financial Sense Newshour- Jim Puplava Interviews Richard Heinberg
Jim Puplava recently interviewed Richard Heinberg, discussing issues around the theme of Richard's new book "Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines". Listen to interview: RealPlayer, Windows Media.
[Posted 09 October 2007]
Interesting discussion on The Oil Drum: Europe website initiated by a brief article from Euan Mearns about a note from his milk delivery company, explaining why milk prices are going up. Euan's post is very brief, but the 106 comments that follow discuss all aspects of rising food prices, and sustainable, local food production, with some useful advice for those contemplating such a lifestyle: <<A curious custom in the UK is that we still get milk delivered to our door step by the milkman each day. Today we received a rather curious note from our milkman (Robert Wiseman Dairies) warning of higher prices, growing demand and extreme weather. What is the world coming to?... In recent days I have picked up stories in the press about chicken / egg farmers going out of business because of increased feed prices and the same seems to be happening to pig farmers. In the interest of keeping inflation under control, it seems the supermarkets are refusing to pay higher prices to farmers. Does this provide a glimpse of the future? We may have to eat fewer eggs, less pork and bacon and drink less milk.>> Read A Note From our Milkman.
[Posted 04 October 2007]
Earlier this month, CIBC World Markets published an article entitled OPEC’s Growing Call on Itself in its Occasional Report #62. The gist of the report is that OPEC's own oil consumption is increasing, therefore there will be less to export. The report estimates/forecasts that OPEC oil production will increase only marginally 2006-2010 (600,000 b/d), but that consumption increases by 1.5 Mb/d, resulting a drop in exports of almost 1 Mb/d. Exports from Mexico fall from 1.7 Mb/d in 2006 to 200,000 b/d by 2010. Russian ol exprots remain stable at about 7 Mb/d. See Table 1, p4 for details. From the report: "The call on OPEC has long been referred to as a measure of pressure on world supply, being the difference between world demand and non-cartel production. But increasingly, what bears watching is OPEC’s growing call on itself, which is simply the difference between what OPEC produces and what it consumes. Not only is the cartel, along with other key producers like Russia and Mexico, struggling to grow production, but at the same time their own internal consumption rates of oil are soaring. So much so that crude exports from the group as a whole, accounting for roughly 60% of current world oil production, are likely to fall by as much as 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of the decade—resulting in significantly higher oil prices." Read the report (PDF, 533 Kb).
[Posted 26 September 2007]
Solar technology and alternatives ready to replace fossil fuels - Jeremy Leggett
Jeremy Leggett interviewed by Robyn Williams for ABC [Australia] National Radio's Science Show, followed by a question / answer session with the audience. From the ABC website: "In this forum Dr Leggett shows how we may just survive global warming and the end of fossils fuels by embracing solar technology and other alternatives. He also talks of SolarAid, a venture in Africa and South America aimed at bringing affordable and clean technology to the poor." Broadcast on 15 Sept., the whole interview (55 mins.) is available online. Jeremy covers many topics in the Q/A session, including Peak Oil. Science Show website.
[Posted 26 September 2007]
Winners outpace losers in 2006 (just) - BP Statistical Review 2007
Every year British Petroleum publishes its Statistical Review of World Energy, covering oil, natural gas and coal. Although the data is not perfect, it is still one of the best publicly available, and free, sources of data for analysing trends in oil production and reserves. Chris Skrebowski summarised the oil production data for 2006 in July's Petroleum Review. Winners outpace losers in 2006 (just) (PDF, 74 Kb).
Rembrandt Koppelaar, of ASPO Netherlands, has recently started producing a very useful summary and analysis of global oil production called Oilwatch Monthly. A brief summary is usually posted on The Oil Drum: Europe website, and the full report is freely available as a PDF file. The main sources of data are the International Energy Agency and US Energy Information Administration, and also ASPO-Ireland and the BP Statistical Review. If you want a brief overview of current world oil production in one report, this is the place to look - the presentation/layout is professional and easy to use. August 2007 - The Oil Drum: Europe summary, PDF file (1.40 Mb).
[Posted 27 August 2007]
Topic: All the Canaries Have Stopped Singing - Jim Puplava Interviews Matthew Simmons
What makes Jim Puplava such a good interviewer is that he has developed some expertise in Peak Oil himself, and knows the right questions to ask Matthew. Financial Sense Newshour, 18 August 2007. Interview (46 min)
[Posted 24 August 2007]
Yesterday This Day's Madness Did Prepare
David Strahan was interviewed on 03 Aug. by George Kenney of Electric Politics. David and George discuss many of the issues raised in David's recent book, The Last Oil Shock. Over an hour long, but very interesting. Interview.
[Posted 21 August 2007]
Peak Moment TV. Richard Heinberg: Peak Oil, Peak Coal, and Beyond
Richard Heinberg was interviewed by Peak Moment TV on 23 May 2007. From the video introduction: "Hot topics from Richard Heinberg: record-high U.S. fuel prices; the ethanol big-business boondoggle; coal projected to peak about a hundred years early (around 2020); what the climate change discussion is missing; and enjoying ourselves as we 'go local.' " Watch. Listen. (28min.)
[Posted 20 August 2007]
Jean Laherrère is well known to the Peak Oil community, France's equivalent of Colin Campbell, indeed the two have published together (The End Of Cheap Oil, 1998). Recently Jean was interviewed by The Oil Drum, where he revealed some of his thoughts on oil, gas and coal reserves/resources. Jean believes that rather than have an abrupt peak in global oil production, we will have an undularting plateau and that it has arrived already. His number one solution for the problems ahead is probably the most popular - using less energy through conservation, efficiency and change in lifestyle. Interview with Jean Laherrère.
[Posted 09 August 2007]
US Energy Information Administration Electricity and Natural Gas Statistics Updated
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently updated its "World Proved Natural Gas Reserves" and "International Price Data for Electricity and Natural Gas" statistics. Although this data might seem rather dry, it is relevant to future natural gas supplies, and to the prices we might expect to pay for electricity. World Proved Natural Gas Reserves, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2007 Estimates (Excel spreadsheet) give some idea of how natural gas reserves are growing, or not, for various countries/regions. The erratic nature of the some of the figures gives a hint of the overall reliability of natural gas reserves data in general. However, for some countries the picture is clear enough and for the UK in particular, the outlook for gas production is bleak. The Annual International Price Data for Electricity and Natural Gas are also insightful. Both the USA and UK are heavily dependent on gas-fired power stations to meet their electricity needs, and becoming increasingly dependent on imported Liquefied Natural Gas to meet their natural gas requirements. Both the UK and USA depend to an extent on the so-called spot market for LNG, which means that when demand outstrips supplies, spot cargoes of LNG will go to the highest bidder. The limited data available in the Natural Gas Prices for Electricity Generation shows that the UK has in fact been paying much less than the USA for its natural gas for some years. The implication is that when the UK bids against the USA for spot LNG cargoes, it will have to start paying a lot more to secure delivery.
[Posted 08 August 2007]
US National Petroleum Council Reports on Peak Oil
A couple of years ago, the US Energy Secretary, Samuel Bodman, asked the National Petroleum Council (NPC) to investigate Peak Oil. Its final report was published mid-July. Although the report does hint at oil supply problems ahead, you have to dig deep into the full report to find them, and the Executive Summary avoids summarizing the problem. Therefore, the media were able to give an optimistic or pessimistic slant, depending on which parts of the report they quoted from. Although some people in the Peak Oil community were disappointed with the total lack of urgency in the report, others see this report as a step forward. It is the lack of urgency that is perhaps the biggest drawback of the report.
Report in various formats (NPC website. Note that the main report in PDF format is about 11 Mb big)
Beyond Oil (Kenneth Deffeyes commentary - "I tip my hard hat to the NPC authors; figure T-VII-1 is a competent job of camouflaging.")
The National Petroleum Council Report (Stuart Staniford, The Oil Drum - "Here are some of my concerns about [the report]")
National Petroleum Council Report Comes Up a Dry Hole (ASPO-USA on the Energy Bulletin website)
Other report summarized on Energy Bulletin
U.S. energy options (The Washington Times editorial)
[Posted 08 August 2007]
Make A Note 10 July 2007 Was The Day They Announced Peak Oil Was Real
'They' refers to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA used to produce an annual report, and still does, once a year, but last year they decided that once a year was not enough and started producing intermediate reports known as Medium Term Oil Market Report (MT-OMR), published every February and July. Last year the July MT-OMR hinted strongly at problems with supply, see ODAC review International Energy Agency Releases Its Medium-Term Oil Market Report. However, this year they took everyone by surprise and explicitly declared that global oil demand will outstrip supply by 2012. This is in fact more or less the same message as the Peak Oil community are shouting about - global oil demand will outstrip supply any year now, but most likely 2010-2012. However, the IEA is still not comfortable talking/writing about 'Peak Oil'. The message of global oil demand outstripping supply was widely reported in the mainstream media, see for example the Financial Times, World will face oil crunch ‘in five years’, and the Washington Post, IEA sees oil supply crunch looming. The Energy Bulletin covered several reports. Unfortunately, the mainstream media did little to report / analyse what demand outstripping supply actually means, in terms of consequences, but The Times was an exception: Are these the last days of the Oil Age?. Presumably the IEA will follow-up this theme in future reports, and hopefully the media will report in absolutely explicit and clear terms what this means for you and me.
[Posted 08 August 2007]
Are We Running On Empty? Peak Oil and Transport Debate on Australian TV
The ABC (Australia) television series Difference of Opinion recently broadcast a program entitled Are We Running On Empty?, where a panel of four speakers discussed alternative fuels for cars and public transport in light of Peak Oil. Two segments of the program are available over the web, How will cars change as oil runs out? (4 min 44 sec) and Can we really build public transport that can effectively replace the car? (3 min 09 sec) , see transcript and video links. Watching the program over the internet can be difficult (very slow) from the UK, depending on time of day. The issues raised in the debate probably apply to most major cities, very interesting.
Steve McCready watched the whole program and has kindly provided notes.
[Posted 27 July 2007]
If there is one issue that might get the masses concerned about Peak Oil, it is: what will happen when I get toothache in the post-Peak world? Earlier this year Ben Brangwyn of Transition Network set about trying to figure this out (see Calling_all_dentists). Three months later, Ben has finished his research with the help of two UK-based practicing dentists, and writes: "There is a deafening silence from the world of dentistry on the subject of Peak Oil. As we move into the era that marks the end of cheap and abundant fossil fuels, all healthcare systems will need to adapt to the ensuing constraints, dentistry included. In this document, two UK dentists respond to a set of questions regarding dentistry and Peak Oil that were recently posted on the ODAC website. Both dentists have chosen to remain anonymous for the moment. They are identified, rather unimaginatively, as Dentist #1 and Dentist #2." Read the report, Peak Oil and Dentistry (PDF, 50 Kb).
[Posted 24 July 2007]
Chris Skrebowski On The Dramatic Shortage Of New Liquefied Natural Gas Mega Projects
Global Public Media recently (14th July) interviewed ODAC Board Trustee and Petroleum Review editor Chris Skrebowski, regarding the developing 'tight' market for LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) supplies. In nutshell, whilst global LNG supplies are due to double over the next few years, demand is forecast to more than double. Chris also talks about Russian gas supplies, the link between oil and gas prices, amongst other things. July's Petroleum Review contained a review of new LNG mega projects, available on the GPM website. Global Public Media.
See also Natural Gas - Permanent Shortages Ahead?
[Posted 20 July 2007]
The Irish television channel RTE recently broadcast Future Shock: End of the Oil Age, which reviews how dependent the republic of Ireland is on oil. Indeed the program states that Ireland has one of the highest rates of oil use per capita. The first 15 minutes covers the history of oil use, transport, food, commuting etc., then moves on to past oil shocks, and finally Peak Oil - very thought provoking. You will need Real Player to watch the video, a free version can be downloaded from the RTE website - see 'Player Settings'. Watch the video (1 hour long). Contains two sets of commercials a few minutes long.
Following on from the RTE Peak Oil program, The Meath Chronicle ran an editorial, Energy debate must include all options, suggesting that nuclear energy has to be considered if Ireland is to meet its energy requirements. Not everyone agrees with nuclear energy, but at least the editors of the paper recognise the seriousness of the Peak Oil situation and that business-as-usual is not an appropriate option: <<In a nutshell, oil depletion (along with climate change) is probably the most serious crisis ever to face industrialised society and yet governments around the world are still incredibly ill-prepared to meet the extraordinary challenge this will pose. Virtually every single item we possess or need is due to oil in one form or another. However, no clear consensus has emerged on what happens next. Will existing hydrocarbon technologies be adapted to new realities or will radical new technologies emerge, like hydrogen fuel cells, to complement renewable energy sources like solar and wind energy? As one of the most oil-dependent states in Europe, if not the world, Ireland has an awful lot to lose with the decline of the petroleum economy unless we start to plan now. Some people see gas as the future of energy, and while there are massive reservoirs of it as yet untapped, it is also a fossil fuel and thus a finite resource, as is coal... Whether or not nuclear ever forms part of the mix in Ireland, the reality is that this country remains extremely vulnerable to a global energy shock and must use the next decade to intensively examine all our options to generate power into the future...>>
Eamon Ryan meanwhile, a member of the Irish Green Party who was recently elected to the Irish parliament, has been designated Minister for Communications, Energy & Natural Resources. Eamon has attended at least two previous ASPO conferences in Europe, and will be speaking at ASPO-6 in Cork in September. The Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern clearly new what he was doing when he selected a Peak Oil-aware member of his government to be in charge of the Energy portfolio. Perhaps UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown could follow suit?!
An ODAC News subscriber writes: "Peak Oil now on Sport Pages. Hard To Believe". From an article, A Royal week of Aussie sprinters, Irish first-timers, Fortune's success and a Coronation, in Ireland's Independent sports pages: <<... Tracey Collins was momentarily 'Most Unpopular Woman Down Under' for deigning to spoil their clean sweep with Dandy Man and if one consequence of Peak Oil is that it makes it untenable for the Aussies to travel over next time then our sprint trainers will be happier than most to herald the end of the Oil Age and move to a more sustainable energy source... >>
[Posted 20 July 2007]
Coal Supplies Roundup / Electricity Supplies
Compiled mostly by ODAC, a recent post on The Oil Drum: Europe lists five reports that have been published / released over the last 5 months on coal. Two are from the same source (2 and 3), but otherwise different authors all with the same message. Coal is not nearly as abundant as assumed. The point is the same as that for natural gas – Peak might be some way off, but supply problems could be just around the corner – problems with coal supplies will mean problems with electricity supplies. We ought to planning/preparing for a less-than-rosy scenario now. One of the strengths of Oil Drum articles is the constructive criticism and analysis that others contribute after the main article. Coal - The Roundup.
If you think electricity supplies are safe, think again. Railton Frith recently posted an article on the Sanders Research Associates Limited website, discussing the problems we will soon face regarding electricity supplies - Peak Oil: Punctuated Power. And on the subject of electricity supplies, Jason Makansi has just published Lights Out. For a good review, see ‘Lights Out: The Electricity Crisis, the Global Economy and What It Means to You’. The book is only available in hardback at the moment. Although the book focuses on electricity supplies in the USA, the penultimate chapter covers 'The Rest of The World', and the discussion of the USA can be applied to just about any other industrialised country, especially in Europe.
[Posted 20 July 2007]
Time to React?: ASPO-6 Conference Registration Now Open
ASPO Ireland have announced that registration for ASPO-6 is now open. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) will hold its 6th International Conference in Cork City Hall, Ireland, 17-18 Sept. The Conference, entitled ‘Time to React?’, seeks to highlight a future where oil and gas demand outstrips supply.
The Conference will feature speakers who are leaders in the industry, with Dr. James Schlesinger (former US Secretary of Energy); Lord Ron Oxburgh (former Chairman of Shell UK ); Herman Franssen (former Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency); and Eddie O’Connor (Chief Executive of Airtricity) already confirmed. The Conference will be attended by over 500 delegates from across the globe.
The format of ASPO-6 is slightly different from previous ASPO conferences in that there are fewer presentations, but more time for general discussion.
[Posted 28 June 2007]
UK: All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas Launched, 26th June
On Tuesday 26th June 2007, the UK All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas (APPGOPO) held its inaugural Annual General Meeting, ensuring that the issue of declining global oil supplies will feature much more prominently in Parliament during the Gordon Brown era. For full details, see the ODAC Press Release written with PowerSwitch.
Action Point: If you live in the UK, you might like to encourage your MP (see Write To Them) to join this group, or at the very least highlight its existence and its aims. All UK MPs have surgeries where they meet members of their constituencies. How about making an appointment and handing over a copy of Robert Hirsch's Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts (PDF, 494 Kb), and giving an introduction to APPGOPO? This report is especially useful because it highlights that the large majority of forecasts reviewed have peak between now and 2020, and it was funded by the US government.
[Posted 28 June 2007]
A perfect storm of three trends are currently causing global food inflation: droughts in some of the main wheat growing areas, growing crops for biofuels, especially corn for bioethanol in the USA, and increasing demand for food in e.g. China. A brief summary is provided in this BBC video, Food prices defy inflation (2min 43secs).
The Financial Times have regularly reported the upcoming problems recently, see: Growing biofuels demand raises food prices and Floods and drought send price of wheat soaring. This International Herald Tribune article, Rising pork prices in China signal pricier times worldwide, focuses specifically on increasing food prices in China, and the knock-on effects elsewhere. The Times meanwhile reports that the price of milk is increasing worldwide, Milk price soars as drought hits dairy industry: "The price of milk is soaring worldwide as a drought-stricken dairy industry struggles to meet surging demand for milk products in China and the Middle East."
The Earth Policy Institute has been foremost in sending out alarm bells regarding converting so much of the US corn crop to bioethanol, and as Lester R. Brown keeps warning, "this is only the beginning". See: Massive Diversion Of U.S. Grain to Fuel Cars Is Raising World Food Prices and Biofuels Blunder. The EPI have also just published this article, Losing Soil, emphasizing that crop production in various parts of the world has fallen considerably because of soil erosion which is ongoing, but is also reversible: "Kazakhstan, at the center of this Virgin Lands Project, saw its grainland area peak at just over 25 million hectares (44 millions acres) around 1980, then shrink to 14 million hectares today. Even on the remaining land, however, the average wheat yield is scarcely 1 ton per hectare, a far cry from the nearly 8 tons per hectare that farmers get in France, Western Europe’s leading wheat producer. A similar situation exists in Mongolia, where over the last 20 years half the wheatland has been abandoned and wheat yields have also fallen by half, shrinking the harvest by three fourths. Mongolia—a country almost three times the size of France with a population of 2.6 million—is now forced to import nearly 60 percent of its wheat."
Similar to Lester Brown's work, C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer recently published a lengthy but excellent article, How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor, in the US Council On Foreign Affairs magazine Foreign Affairs: "Thanks to high oil prices and hefty subsidies, corn-based ethanol is now all the rage in the United States. But it takes so much supply to keep ethanol production going that the price of corn -- and those of other food staples -- is shooting up around the world. To stop this trend, and prevent even more people from going hungry, Washington must conserve more and diversify ethanol's production inputs."
Top marks for the newspaper that covers the rising price of food (and indeed Peak Oil) must go to the UK-based Independent newspaper. Last Saturday (23 June) the front page article was on this very topic, The fight for the world's food - Population is growing. Supply is falling. Prices are rising. What will be the cost to the planet's poorest?: "Most people in Britain won't have noticed. On the supermarket shelves the signs are still subtle. But the onset of a major change will be sitting in front of many people this morning in their breakfast bowl. The price of cereals in this country has jumped by 12 per cent in the past year. And the cost of milk on the global market has leapt by nearly 60 per cent. In short we may be reaching the end of cheap food." The newspaper followed up with an editorial that leaves no room for doubt, Leading article: We have to accept that the era of cheap food is coming to an end. On Sunday (24 June), the Independent carried a story that may well change the German public's attitude towards the mass growing of crops for biofuels, Biofuels to blame as beer prices soar 40 per cent in Germany. And only yesterday (27 June), reported on a new bioethanol plant in the UK that will be using wheat, A milestone on the road to green fuel.
As with Peak Oil, there are those who insist there is no problem. Planet Ark (Reuters) recently reported that some 'analysts and politicians' think that "Fears of world food shortages caused by booming use of sugar cane and corn to produce ethanol fuel for motor vehicles are overblown and politically motivated", Ethanol Boom Won't Threaten Food Supply - Analysts. The evidence here suggests otherwise.
[Posted 28 June 2007]
A new group called High Ground Communities is promoting renewable energy and locally grown organic food in US cities. The focus is on 'High Ground' on the basis that lower ground, coastal cities may become engulfed with water over the coming century. Report and PowerPoint presentation available from the HGC website:
High Ground Communities is a project attempting to establish a network of 60 cities that are off the fossil fuel grid using clean renewables and local organic food production. The first 12 would be literally on high ground to avoid sea level risings that are possible from global warming, the next 48, if they were to go off grid, would contribute seriously to carbon emission reduction. So far, Missoula, Albuquerque and Denver are considering their roles in this, and Austin, St. Paul, Nashville, Spokane, Pasadena, Philadelphia, and Seattle have been approached. Scott Sklar of Stella Limited, Inc, is acting as an advisor.
See also: Post Carbon Institute (North America), Transition Town Network (UK)
[Posted 28 June 2007]
Oil Supply and Demand - Prices Set To Rise
A recurrent theme thro' out the oil industry at the moment is that oil prices are high, close to historical highs, and set to get higher. From a western consumers point of view, this is because OPEC is not producing enough oil, from OPEC's point of view, there is plenty of oil being produced, it is other geopolitical factors that are keeping oil prices high. This Platts podcast OPEC under pressure to raise production (14 June, 5min 45 Sec) discusses the issues in detail, pointing out that OPEC has no intention of raising oil production until September at the earliest, and possibly much later.
The latest article from Platts oil blog The Barrel, No bears at the IEA (15 June), goes further. John Kingston, the writer, is Platts’ Director of Oil, and not only does he state that the outlook for oil prices over the next few months looks bleak, but that the latest IEA monthly Oil Market Report (freely available about 2 weeks after it is published, i.e. near end of each month) supports Peak in May 2005, so far: “Some peak oil theorists say world crude production peaked in May 2005. And you can read parts of the report as confirming that.”
In another Platts podcast, US requires gasoline imports to avoid pressure on prices (15 June, 3 min 28 sec), Cathy Landry, Platts Washington oil correspondent, discusses whether or not increased gasoline imports will be a problem in the US. She expects gasoline/petrol prices to remain roughly where they are at the moment for the rest of the summer, but finishes off with a list of events that might make them go ballistic: another hurricane, a serious refinery outage, a geopolitical incident.
A common theme among Peak Oil circles, and in particular The Oil Drum, is asking the question - is OPEC holding back production because the country with the most spare capacity, Saudi Arabia, has in fact no spare capacity, i.e. has peaked and is now in decline? The most recent post at The Oil Drum: Europe, Will OPEC increase supply in the 2nd half of 2007? Or has Ghawar peaked? (20 June) is a good, and relatively short, overview:
Concerns about a gap in crude oil demand/supply in the 2nd half of 2007 increased in the past months. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and it’s sister organisation, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), have both told the OPEC cartel that OPEC must increase supply to avert rising oil prices. Presently the agencies expect a crude oil demand/supply shortfall of 1 million barrels per day towards the end of the year. However the OPEC cartel is of the opinion that oil markets are well supplied and therefore there is no need to increase supply at the moment. This discussion, as shown below, boils down to the expectation for non-OPEC supply and world demand in the 2nd half. If the IEA and EIA projections are correct, we will soon find out what is going on in Saudi Arabia with the production of the supergiant oilfield Ghawar.
This Oil Drum post is followed by a particularly interesting dicussion which is worth a read, the gist of which, for much of it, is that Saudi Arabia may well be able to increase production, but won't.
[Posted 21 June 2007]
US National Academy of Sciences Questions US Coal Reserves
The US National Academy of Sciences have just released a report on coal, the fourth report in as many months suggesting global coal reserves may be considerably less than commonly believed. Except that this report suggests taking up to 10 years to determine an accurate estimate of US coal reserves. The report questions the myth of enough coal for 250 years, indeed, is certain there is enough coal only to 2030, and that is at current rates of production. The full report costs $US36-42.3, depending on version, but the crux of the report is available free, in the Report Brief (PDF, 2.46 Mb, 4 pages). All emphasis in bold ODAC’s:
Accurate and comprehensive estimates of national coal reserves are essential for a coherent national energy strategy, particularly for community, workforce, and infrastructure planning. Although the United States is endowed with a vast amount of coal, coal reserves (i.e., the coal that can be economically mined using current mining practices) are a small proportion of total coal resources.
Present estimates of coal reserves— which take into account location, quality, recoverability, and transportation issues—are based upon methods that have not been updated since their inception in 1974, and much of the input data were compiled in the early 1970s. Recent programs to assess coal recoverability in limited areas using updated methods indicate that only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves are actually recoverable. Such findings emphasize the need for a reinvigorated coal reserve assessment program using modern methods and technologies.
A coordinated federal-state-industry initiative to determine the magnitude and characteristics of the nation’s recoverable coal reserves, using modern mapping, coal characterization, and database technologies, should be instituted with the goal of providing policy makers with a comprehensive accounting of national coal reserves within 10 years. The report estimates that such an initiative, which should be lead by the U.S. Geological Survey and involve participation by the Energy Information Administration at DOE, states, and industry, will require additional funding of approximately $10 million per year.
From the News Release:
To formulate national energy policies, federal policymakers need accurate estimates of the amount, location, and quality of mineable coal. Such estimates are particularly important for community, workforce, and infrastructure planning. It is clear that there is enough coal at current rates of production to meet anticipated needs through 2030, and probably enough for 100 years, the committee said. However, it is not possible to confirm the often-quoted assertion that there is a sufficient supply for the next 250 years.
The NY Times reported the story as Science Panel Finds Fault With Estimates of Coal Supply.
Regarding taking up to 10 years to determine an accurate estimate of US coal reserves, Dave Rutledge writes:
"You can see why it would take ten years if you look at the resource assessment, which is a much easier job than calculating reserves. Coal Assessments: Introduction. The resources assessment amounts to 6,000 pages!"
[Posted 21 June, updated 25 June, 2007]
This was the frontline heading of the Independent newspaper in the UK on Thursday 14th June, with a map showing various countries oil reserves, "What oil nations say they have left". The whole of page 2 was taken up with the following article: World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists:
<<Scientists have criticised a major review of the world's remaining oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming sooner than governments and oil companies are prepared to admit. BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday, appears to show that the world still has enough "proven" reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry. However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives.>>
The story was in response to BP's claim the day before, when it released its BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007, "that the world still has enough 'proven' reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates". The story was also picked up by Radio 4 News in the morning of the 14th, but otherwise the BBC ignored the story. Some of the credit for the story goes to Jeremy Leggett of SolarCentury and "Half Gone" fame who put the Independent in ODAC's direction.
The story was also covered by:
Oil crisis 'to hit in four years' Melbourne Herald Sun, Australia. Exactly the same story was in: NEWS.com.au, Australia; Advertiser Adelaide, Australia; Daily Telegraph, Australia; Courier Mail, Australia; Sunday Times.au, [Perth] Australia.
Scientists reportedly dispute BP's oil-reserve forecast MarketWatch
Oil supplies dwindling quicker than expected, scientists warn Hamilton Spectator
Scientists warn that oil will start to run out in four years' time Irish Independent, Ireland
Scientists warn that oil supplies will start to run out in four years' time Belfast Telegraph, United Kingdom
[Posted 15 June 2007]
Hubbert's Peak, The Question of Coal, and Climate Change
Dave Rutledge is an American researcher, based at the California Institute of Technology, who thinks that global coal reserves may be less than currently thought. He starts his presentation with a discussion of oil production / depletion, moves on to coal reserves, climate change modelling and finishes with some alternative energy solutions. Dave’s research page contains a PowerPoint presentation, and roughly the same slides are in the video version which you can watch on YouTube. As an example of a country that got its coal reserves wrong, Dave analyses what happened to the UK coal industry. Dave states:
“There is also a spreadsheet file there with the raw data and extra plots that do not fit in a presentation, together with a link to an archive webcast from a talk I gave at the University of California at San Diego on May 11.
I was an undergraduate at Cambridge in the early 70's when the coal miners brought down the Heath government. The critical part of this discussion is the British experience with coal, because it is the outstanding example of a country with major coal reserves that has gone through the complete rise and fall. The American examples for Pennsylvania anthracite and Virginia are much smaller amounts of coal.”
Dave sent ODAC a more up-to-date copy of his PowerPoint presentation - Hubbert’s Peak, The Question of Coal, and Climate Change (2.12 Mb).
[Posted 14 June 2007]
Peak Oil, Peak Gas, Peak Coal, Peak Uranium, and Solutions
Last week Douglas Low of ODAC was invited to give a talk to the Aberdeen (Scotland) Green Drinks group. The main theme of the talk was Peak Oil, but given that the UK government has just published its third Energy White Paper in three years, it seemed appropriate to cover Peak Gas, Peak Coal and Peak Uranium as well, they are all likely to occur this century. The format of the talk was a 30 minute presentation with no visual aids - rather the talk was focused around a series of contemporary reports and articles available on the web. Aberdeen Green Drinks requested a list of reports and articles used in talk, available here.
[Posted 14 June 2007]
Crude - The Incredible Journey Of Oil
Australian TV continues to lead the way in Crude Oil/Peak Oil documentaries. Last week the Australian Broadcasting Company broadcast Crude, a 1.5 hour documentary which is now available online. The main part of the documentary is split into three separate videos: The age of oil (29 min); The last hours of sunlight (31 min); and Back to the future (30 min). There are also seven interviews: The origins of oil; Carbon in the world of dinosaurs; Different mindsets of experts (Colin Campbell); Alternative energies; A new ice age; Oil and the world economy; Anoxic ocean events. And four In Depth slide presentations: History of oil 2000 BC - 2000 AD; Products made from oil; The Irony of oil; Alternatives to oil.
Note that there is a vertical scroll bar on the RHS of the screen you need to use to see most of the interviews and the all In Depth presentations. It is almost invisible, and you have to hold down on the moving bar to get it to work.
A review of the documentary from The Age, Oil: the tale of our times, summarizes the problem succinctly: "There's an economic boom around the world and a population boom around the world and this resource is already half gone... Our economic system is based on continuous growth and most of our growth is based on an energy source that is rapidly becoming more expensive and is running out."
Crude has a resources web page: Web and Further Resources
[Posted 28 May 2007]
Petrol / Gasoline Prices, UK and USA
The contrast in rising petrol/gasoline prices between the UK and the USA could hardly be starker. In the UK, petrol has increased from about 85 pence/litre to 97 pence/litre over the last few weeks/months, while in the USA gasoline has increased from just over $2/gallon to well over $3/gallon, the difference being because of the very high taxes on UK petrol. The principal reasons for the higher prices are refinery-related. Why should we be interested in the price of petrol/gasoline anyway? Firstly, although the current increase in prices is refinery-driven, it will in the medium to long-term be driven by lack of crude. Secondly, the higher prices could have a negative effect on the US economy, and therefore the global economy, exactly what we are trying to avoid. And thirdly, crude prices could rise by $10-20/barrel this summer, taking petrol prices even higher. It would be nice of course if the high petrol/gasoline/crude prices would get the topic of Peak Oil discussed in the general media.
For insight into the current high gasoline prices (USA), Tom Whipple has been covering the issue in three of his past four articles for the Falls Church News-Press: The Peak Oil Crisis: Week Twelve, The Peak Oil Crisis: Alarms Are Sounding and The Peak Oil Crisis: The Minimum Operating Level. In the latter he explains that: "Now that we are all fixated on gasoline inventories, it is important to know that America has two largely unconnected oil worlds – the five west coast states (California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Arizona) and the rest of the country. The West Coast gets its imported gasoline supplies by tanker across the Pacific. The rest of the country gets its imports from tankers across the Atlantic." In summary, US gasoline stocks are low, the refineries are stretched and imports are minimal.
From a UK perspective, a couple of podcasts from Platts explains why there is a shortage of petrol/gasoline thro' out Europe, and the cause of increasing petrol prices in the UK. One of the blend components for petrol is naphtha, and more money can be made sending the naphtha to South East Asia as a petrochemical feedstock than using it to make petrol, Gasoline crack hits 20 month high (podcast, 3min 36sec). Another reason is that, as in the USA, some major refineries have had unexpected maintenance shutdowns, Mediterranean gasoline prices rise as US driving season approaches (podcast, 5min 17sec). The podcasts suggest that Platts is concerned about how high petrol/gasoline prices will go this summer.
The high prices have been well-covered in the US media and the news agencies, but not much by the UK media:
Gas Prices: Breaking Records and Bucking Trends (Washington Post, 24 May)
A Gas Crisis 30 Years in the Making (Washington Post, 27 May)
Memorial Day Motorists Will Pay Record Gasoline Prices in U.S. (Bloomberg, 25 May)
Petrol to hit £1 a litre within weeks as oil supply strains show (The Guardian - UK, 25 May)
Stage set for $US80 oil prices (Sydney Morning Herald, 25 May)
Drivers 'helpless' as petrol nears £1 a litre (The Scotsman, 26 May)
European Gasoline Prices Near All-Time High (Green Car Congress, 22 May)
Looking for alternative reasons as to why US gasoline prices have risen so much, Ed Crooks at the Financial Times discusses bio-ethanol becoming a new scapegoat, A new petrol price scapegoat, but concludes: "Other things being equal, the more biofuels the US can use to replace petroleum products, the lower the price of crude will be." (and gives a mention to the Peak Oil website The Oil Drum). On the same theme, see also Oil Industry Says Biofuel Push May Hurt at Pump from the NY Times.
Other items of interest:
If gasoline prices go up, do consumers drive less? - In this Platts podcast, the conclusion is that high gasoline prices are having an effect on consumption.
Richard Heinberg on high fuel prices - Richard Heinberg speaking to Julian Darley of Global Public Media on price gouging and the fundamentals of oil supply and the peaking of crude oil production, amongst other things.
Evidence to the US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (PDF, 237 Kb), from Paul Sankey Rich Viliva, Deutsche Bank (15 May). Contains several excellent graphs. See the 'Myths' section.
Rising Prices at the Pump - graphs of US gasoline prices 1920 - present (NY Times, 24 May)
Saudi Arabia and Gas[oline] Prices - Stuart Staniford, The Oil Drum. Fairly brief, graph-heavy.
[Posted 28 May 2007]
Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil: Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production
The study of giant oil fields began with Matthew Simmons' paper The World's Giant Oilfields (PDF 260 Kb) published in 2002. A more detailed analysis was therefore long overdue. At the end of March, 2007, Swede Fredrik Robelius defended his PhD, Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil: Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production, with Robert Hirsch. The sections likely to be of most interest to those already familiar with Peak Oil are chapter 6, Giant Oil Fields - The Important Parameter, and Chapter 7, Contributions to Future Oil Production, in which Robelius reviews the size and location of giant oil fields, and future production from them, respectively. These two chapters are a mine of useful information. In Peak Oil articles, the world's top four oil fields are often quoted as Ghawar (Saudi Arabia), Burgan (Kuwait), Cantarell (Mexico) and Daqing (China). In Table 6.1, Ghawar and Burgan are ranked first and second, Cantarell is twelfth and Daqing sixteenth.
According to a review in Energy Bulletin: "In all scenarios, peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak. The worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008 and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 % demand growth, peaks in 2018." ASPO Sweden notes some of Hirsch's concluding remarks: "In the final remarks Dr Hirsch concluded that the peak oil debate now reached a new level. The fact that the forecast openly can be studied in detail and that limits are given it’s now up to CERA and other to explain in details why they end up in other forecasts. If not, the forecast from Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group is the on that the world should use for future planning." Robelius' work was reported by Fox News, Study: 'Peak Oil' Will Be Reached by 2018.
[Posted 27 May 2007]
Campaign: How you can educate your MP about peak oil by recycling your copy of The Last Oil Sho